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Draft strategy

Compiled 2026-09-10 from RotoWire, 4for4, Footballguys, FantasyPros, Draft Sharks, Ben Gretch, Jakob Sanderson, Establish The Run, and FFPC's official rules. Links at the bottom of each section.

Our picks (slot 3, plain snake)

RdPickRdPickRdPickRdPick
136701112316190
2227751214217195
3278941314718214
4469991416619219
551101181517120238

Slot 3 alternates long waits (19 picks: 3 to 22, 27 to 46, 51 to 70) with short ones (5 picks: 22 to 27, 46 to 51, 70 to 75). The short gaps are where you can plan a specific pair of players; the long gaps are where you must take the best player now.

The big picture

  1. One early anchor, then WR-heavy through the flexes. The most repeated expert structure: a top RB or elite TE in round 1-2, then hammer WRs in rounds 2-7 where WRs outscore RBs at ADP. RB "dead zone" is rounds 4-7. (Sanderson, Draft Sharks, Footballguys, FantasyPros data: waiting past round 6 for your RB1 still produced average win rates.)
  2. Elite TE is a first-two-round asset in 1.5 PPR. TE1-to-TE12 gap in TE-premium (about 149 pts) nearly matches WR, but the TE12 goes at WR41 ADP. Bowers (ADP 11 in FFPC ME, went 1.08 in a Gretch draft), McBride (16), Loveland (20), Warren (about 53). Bowers has a meniscus trim (out 1-2 games) which is a small hit in a weekly-lineup league but a discount if he slides.
  3. Two TEs in the lineup is a real plan thanks to 2 FLEX. Early TE plus a mid-round TE (Warren, Kraft, LaPorta, Fannin, Kittle) gives two starters at the cheapest starter-quality position.
  4. Wait on QB. 4-pt passing TDs. FFPC ADP: Allen about 31, Jackson 47, Burrow 54, Maye 57. Experts draft QB9+ in rounds 8-10 (Herbert, Lawrence, Purdy, Prescott, Nix, Murray). Burrow slid to round 7 and Mahomes to round 14 in real Main Event drafts.
  5. K and DEF: last 2-4 rounds, but elite units (Aubrey; HOU/SEA/DEN/LAR D) go rounds 12-15 in FFPC. Because there are no free agents in weeks 15-17, many sharp drafters carry a second K or DEF in rounds 18-20 as a championship-week hedge.
  6. Ceiling over floor, and uniqueness. About 20% of teams reach the championship round; the $1M is decided by weeks 15-17 total plus your PPG. Draft for elite outcomes, stack when it falls naturally, do not reach for a QB to stack.
  7. Roster targets for 20 rounds: 1-2 QB, 5-7 RB, 7-9 WR, 2-4 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF. The optimizer defaults to 2/6/8/2/1/1; edit in Settings.

Pick-by-pick plan from slot 3

  • Pick 3: Gibbs and Bijan go 1-2 in nearly every FFPC draft (ADP 1.02 and 2.08, max pick 2 and 3). Expect Ja'Marr Chase (ADP 3.1) to be on the board. Chase vs Nacua vs CMC: projections favor Chase and Nacua; CMC carries age/injury risk. If a top-2 RB somehow falls, take him.
  • Pick 22 / 27 (5 apart): the value pocket. Candidates around ADP 16-30: McBride (16), Achane (16.5), Jeanty (19.5), Loveland (20), Henry (21.6), Olave (23.8), London (24.5), Collins (24.5), Pickens (26.8), Nabers (26.9), Javonte Williams (27.4), A.J. Brown (27.5, now injured), DeVonta Smith (30.6), Breece Hall (30.9). Best combination: an elite TE (McBride or Loveland, or Bowers if he slides) plus a WR1-type, or TE + Henry/Jeanty if you went WR at 3. If Bowers slides past 12 because of the knee, he is the pick at 22.
  • Pick 46 / 51: WR2/WR3 tier (Rice, Flowers, DeVonta Smith, Higgins tier, Egbuka) and the second TE (Warren about 53). Avoid the round 4-7 RB dead zone unless a real value falls.
  • Pick 70 / 75: attack the RB pocket (Skattebo, Judkins, Irving, Price, TreVeyon Henderson types) and take a QB only if the value is extreme (Burrow has slid to round 7 in some rooms).
  • Pick 94 / 99 / 118 / 123: QB (Purdy, Prescott, Nix, Murray, Lawrence, Herbert), WR4-5 upside, third TE if elite value.
  • Pick 142-171: contingent-upside RBs and handcuffs to your own RBs (no trades, tiny FAAB), first DEF around 147-171 if an elite unit is there.
  • Pick 190-238: K, DEF, second DEF or K for weeks 15-17, rookie/lottery RBs, week 15-17 schedule-friendly bench players (ARI, JAX, NFC South).

Values and fades being discussed (September 2026)

  • Values: Tyler Warren TE4 (path to 120 targets); Warren/LaPorta/Fannin/Henderson rounds 5-6; Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. rounds 7-8; KC Concepcion rounds 9-10; Croskey-Merritt RB40; Godwin WR40; Purdy QB13; Nix, Murray, Daniel Jones late; TE sleepers Andrews, Ferguson, Freiermuth, Mason Taylor, Isaiah Likely, Juwan Johnson.
  • Fades: Fannin at TE6 (70) too early; Kittle (33, Achilles) at round 7; LaPorta at TE6 cost; Jeanty, Hampton, Kenneth Walker at ADP; Kyler QB17; Tyrone Tracy RB43; Alec Pierce WR39; Jonathan Taylor and CeeDee Lamb at top-5 cost.
  • Late-breaking: Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner Exempt List (MarShawn Lloyd is the pivot); Sam Darnold hip, no timetable (Drew Lock starts, small hit to JSN); A.J. Brown high-ankle sprain (multi-week); Bowers out 1-2 games. The optimizer applies multipliers for these (shown as a warning icon).

Weeks 15-17 and byes

  • Best weeks 15-17 schedules: NFC South, ARI (NYJ, @NO, LV, all indoors), JAX. Worst: CLE, DEN, NE. Use as a tiebreaker only.
  • Byes: wk 5 KC, CAR; wk 6 (all-play) CIN, DET, MIA, MIN; wk 7 BUF, JAX, LAC, WAS; wk 8 NYG, HOU, NO, SF; wk 9 PIT, TEN; wk 10 CHI, DEN, PHI, TB; wk 11 SEA, LAR, ATL, NE, CLE, GB; wk 12 none; wk 13 BAL, NYJ, IND, LV; wk 14 DAL, ARI. Weeks 13-14 byes only matter if you are a 3 or 4 seed fighting through the league playoffs.

Sources