Circa Survivor Week 9 Picks (2026): the Sharp Model’s pick, entries alive and the pool

Team	Win	From	Field	Public	Rest	Season	Costs	Equity	Then
SEA vs ARI · Sun Nov 8	85.2%	Moneyline	~58.5%	95% / 43%	2.24%	1.91%	—	×0.95	LAR
SF vs LV · Sun Nov 8	80.8%	Moneyline	~3.1%	97% / 96%	2.24%	1.81%	−0.10%	×0.99	LAR
KC vs NYJ · Sun Nov 8	81.7%	Moneyline	~7.3%	97% / 96%	2.17%	1.77%	−0.14%	×0.99	SEA
DET at MIA · Sun Nov 8	74.8%	Moneyline	~7.4%	97% / 98%	2.19%	1.64%	−0.27%	×0.90	LAR
JAX at BAL · Thu Nov 5	80.8%	Moneyline	~9.1%	83% / 78%	1.99%	1.61%	−0.30%	×0.98	LAR
CHI vs TB · Sun Nov 8	71.4%	Moneyline	~5.4%	94% / 94%	2.21%	1.58%	−0.33%	×0.86	LAR
DAL at IND · Sun Nov 8	68.5%	Moneyline	~3.1%	88% / 85%	2.19%	1.50%	−0.41%	×0.84	SEA
HOU at LAC · Sun Nov 8	65.7%	Moneyline	~0.8%	87% / 84%	2.21%	1.45%	−0.46%	×0.81	LAR
LAR at WAS · Sun Nov 8	66.9%	Moneyline	~2.2%	91% / 92%	2.11%	1.41%	−0.50%	×0.82	SEA
NE vs GB · Sun Nov 8	60.4%	Moneyline	–	67% / 45%	2.24%	1.35%	−0.56%	×0.74	LAR
NYG at PHI · Sun Nov 8	60.0%	Moneyline	~0.7%	80% / 74%	2.24%	1.34%	−0.57%	×0.74	LAR
NO vs CLE · Sun Nov 8	59.3%	Moneyline	~0.6%	58% / 50%	2.24%	1.33%	−0.58%	×0.73	LAR
CIN at ATL · Sun Nov 8	58.3%	Moneyline	–	88% / 91%	2.24%	1.30%	−0.61%	×0.72	LAR
BUF at MIN · Mon Nov 9	61.6%	Moneyline	~0.9%	90% / 89%	2.01%	1.24%	−0.67%	×0.76	LAR
DEN at CAR · Sun Nov 8	57.2%	Moneyline	~0.3%	89% / 93%	1.91%	1.09%	−0.82%	×0.70	LAR
CAR vs DEN · Sun Nov 8	42.8%	Moneyline	–	11% / 7%	2.24%	0.96%	−0.95%	×0.53	LAR
ATL vs CIN · Sun Nov 8	41.7%	Moneyline	–	12% / 9%	2.24%	0.93%	−0.98%	×0.52	LAR
CLE at NO · Sun Nov 8	40.7%	Moneyline	–	42% / 50%	2.24%	0.91%	−1.00%	×0.50	LAR
PHI vs NYG · Sun Nov 8	40.0%	Moneyline	–	20% / 26%	2.24%	0.90%	−1.01%	×0.49	LAR
MIN vs BUF · Mon Nov 9	38.4%	Moneyline	–	10% / 11%	2.24%	0.86%	−1.05%	×0.47	LAR
LAC vs HOU · Sun Nov 8	34.3%	Moneyline	–	13% / 16%	2.24%	0.77%	−1.14%	×0.42	LAR
GB at NE · Sun Nov 8	39.6%	Moneyline	–	33% / 55%	1.90%	0.75%	−1.16%	×0.49	LAR
WAS vs LAR · Sun Nov 8	33.1%	Moneyline	–	9% / 8%	2.24%	0.74%	−1.17%	×0.41	LAR
IND vs DAL · Sun Nov 8	31.5%	Moneyline	–	12% / 15%	2.24%	0.70%	−1.21%	×0.39	LAR
TB at CHI · Sun Nov 8	28.6%	Moneyline	–	6% / 6%	2.24%	0.64%	−1.27%	×0.35	LAR
MIA vs DET · Sun Nov 8	25.2%	Moneyline	–	3% / 2%	2.24%	0.56%	−1.35%	×0.31	LAR
LV at SF · Sun Nov 8	19.2%	Moneyline	–	3% / 4%	2.24%	0.43%	−1.48%	×0.24	LAR
BAL vs JAX · Thu Nov 5	19.2%	Moneyline	–	17% / 22%	2.21%	0.42%	−1.49%	×0.24	LAR
NYJ at KC · Sun Nov 8	18.3%	Moneyline	–	3% / 4%	2.24%	0.41%	−1.50%	×0.23	LAR
ARI at SEA · Sun Nov 8	14.8%	Moneyline	–	5% / 57%	2.24%	0.33%	−1.58%	×0.18	LAR

Team	Rtg	Spots	9	10	11	TG	12	13	14	15	XM	16	17	18
SEA	+4.1	2	85	71	–	–	49	62	73	61	55	–	60	47
BUF	+4.0	4	62	78	79	56	–	52	56	62	50	–	73	75
LAR	+3.9	1	67	75	–	63	–	56	48	61	45	–	62	54
JAX	+3.2	3	81	79	64	–	78	52	63	48	–	51	70	61
KC	+3.2	2	82	61	74	44	–	44	47	58	–	55	55	71
SF	+3.0	1	81	64	62	–	51	64	52	54	–	45	66	66
CIN	+2.8	1	58	62	62	–	69	65	53	56	–	60	59	72
DEN	+2.7	1	57	–	70	54	–	76	64	62	50	–	48	61
HOU	+2.4	1	66	65	67	–	58	53	60	52	56	–	51	76
DET	+2.1	2	75	46	64	56	–	57	75	51	–	68	48	50
NE	+1.9	1	60	54	–	–	51	48	58	42	–	62	52	75
DAL	+1.4	1	69	36	73	61	–	38	–	39	–	49	67	57
CHI	+1.3	0	71	–	65	44	–	48	66	38	56	–	52	48
BAL	+1.1	0	19	47	51	–	42	–	61	49	–	68	41	57
GB	+0.7	0	40	57	–	37	–	55	44	72	44	–	49	50
MIN	+0.5	0	38	43	39	–	60	57	42	49	–	63	58	52
LAC	+0.3	0	34	53	65	–	49	51	55	46	–	63	45	39
PIT	+0.1	0	–	38	49	47	–	47	37	51	–	56	63	43
CAR	-0.6	0	43	53	49	–	48	43	59	44	–	44	40	57
PHI	-0.9	0	40	–	51	39	–	55	57	39	44	–	35	52
TB	-1.4	0	29	–	36	–	52	49	39	57	–	46	38	49
ATL	-1.5	0	42	39	–	–	40	43	53	49	–	54	56	43
IND	-1.9	0	32	55	33	–	57	–	43	56	–	40	51	39
NO	-2.3	0	59	47	35	–	31	45	41	43	–	59	44	51
WAS	-2.4	0	33	48	39	–	50	55	40	51	–	37	30	43
LV	-2.9	0	19	30	30	–	49	–	45	38	–	62	49	29
NYG	-2.9	0	60	52	36	–	43	37	27	57	–	32	34	48
NYJ	-3.4	0	18	22	35	–	52	–	36	47	–	38	42	26
CLE	-3.7	0	41	36	–	–	52	35	48	43	–	32	49	28
ARI	-3.9	0	15	25	26	–	50	45	–	53	–	41	51	34
TEN	-5.4	0	–	21	27	–	23	45	25	44	–	38	38	24
MIA	-5.5	0	25	45	21	–	48	24	34	28	–	37	27	25

Compiled 2026-09-11 (Friday of NFL Week 1). Every fact carries a URL; anything I could not verify is marked [unverified]. Companion data files:

data/survivor/lines_2026.csv — 272 rows: Weeks 1-2 current lines + Weeks 3-18 schedule-release lookahead spreads.
data/survivor/pick_pct_2026.csv — projected (NOT official) Week 1 pick % only; Circa's official distribution is not out yet.
data/survivor/circa_rules_2026.json — structured rules incl. all 20 legs and deadlines.

1. 2026 Rules

Primary source: official rules PDF, Rev. 6/19/2026 — https://www.circasports.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/CircaSportsSurvivorContest.2026-FinalRules-19-JUNE-2026.pdf (text extracted locally with pdftotext). Landing page: https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor. Contest hub: https://www.circasports.com/contests.

Item	2026 rule	Source
Entry fee	$1,000 per entry, non-refundable (Rule 1)	PDF
Max entries	10 per person; >10 = disqualification without refund (Rule 3)	PDF
Rebuys	Only for entries that lost on the Wed 9/9 (NE@SEA) or Thu 9/10 (SF@LAR) opener: may buy up to 10 additional (max 20 purchased) before the Sat 9/12 2:00 PM PT registration deadline, and cannot hold more than 10 active entries at that deadline (Rule 3a-c)	PDF
Registration deadline	Sat Sept 12, 2026, 2:00 PM PT (Rule 5)	PDF
Entries	22,068 entries / $22,068,000 pool as of 2026-09-11 (still open until Sat 2 PM PT). Milestones: 10,491 (~mid-Aug), 20,281 (~Sept 8).	https://www.circasports.com/contests ; https://g3newswire.com/circa-sports-record-breaking-2026-2027-football-contests-surpass-over-12k-entries-ahead-of-sept-12-signup-deadline/ ; https://www.vegas24seven.com/circa-survivor-hits-20-million-guarantee-with-four-days-left-to-sign-up/
Prize pool	$20M guaranteed; no rake; every fee above 20,000 entries is added to the pool (Rule 19a-b). Paid starting Jan 16, 2027 (19c).	PDF
Payout structure	Winner-take-all if one entry is left. If >1 entry survive all 20 legs, split equally among entries that submitted a pick in the final leg (19d-iv). If all remaining entries lose in the same leg, pool splits equally among all entries that submitted a pick in that leg (19d-iii). If exactly one remains at any point, contest ends and that entry wins (19d-ii).	PDF
Ties	"Weekly selections shall be graded as a loss if the selected team ends their game in a tie" (Rule 6a) — a tie eliminates you	PDF
No pick	"any entry ... that does not make a selection for a Contest Week prior to that Contest Week's deadline will be eliminated" (Rules 12-13)	PDF
Team reuse	Each team usable once per entry for the whole contest (Rule 6); multiple entries may pick contradictory teams (Rule 10)	PDF
Picks final	One submission per week per entry; no voids/changes (Rule 18)	PDF
Postponed games	Must finish by 1:59 AM Wed of the Contest Week or graded a loss (Rule 11)	PDF
Weekly deadline	4:00 PM PT Saturday of each Contest Week, "or before kickoff of the selected game (whichever is earlier)" — window opens 10:00 AM PT Wednesday (Rules 12, 15; landing page)	PDF; https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor
Thanksgiving leg deadline	4:00 PM PT Wednesday Nov 25 (window opens Tue Nov 24 10 AM) (Rule 12)	PDF
Christmas leg deadline	4:00 PM PT Thursday Dec 24 (Rule 13)	PDF
Mobile picks	Circa app requires being geolocated in Nevada; up to 3 registered proxies per entrant (Rules 14-15)	PDF
Official after	Week 8 (Rule 20)	PDF

Is Week 1 already locked as of Fri Sept 11?

No. The Week 1 Contest Week deadline is Sat Sept 12, 4:00 PM PT. Only entries that wanted NE/SEA (Wed) or SF/LAR (Thu) had to pick before those kickoffs. Results: SEA 13, NE 10 (https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401872656/patriots-seahawks) and SF 27, LAR 7 in Melbourne (https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap/_/gameId/401872657). Any entry on NE or LAR is out but can rebuy under Rule 3a before Sat 2 PM PT. [Circa had not yet posted how many entries were lost on the openers as of this writing — unverified.]

The 20-leg structure (Rule 7-9, 11-13)

20 "Contest Weeks": NFL Weeks 1-18 plus two stand-alone holiday legs. The holiday legs are carved out of NFL Weeks 12 and 16:

Leg	Dates	Games / eligible teams	Deadline (PT)
W1-W11	Sept 9 - Nov 23	full slates	Sat 4:00 PM (or kickoff)
TG leg	Wed Nov 25 - Fri Nov 27	Wed GB@LAR; Thu CHI@DET, PHI@DAL, KC@BUF; Fri DEN@PIT. Eligible: GB, LAR, CHI, DET, PHI, DAL, KC, BUF, DEN, PIT (Rule 8a). Entries that have already used all 10 are eliminated at the end of the leg (Rule 8).	Wed Nov 25, 4:00 PM
W12	Sun Nov 29 - Mon Nov 30 only	remaining 11 games; window opens Sat Nov 28 12:00 AM	Sat Nov 28, 4:00 PM
W13-W15	Dec 3 - Dec 21	full slates (W15 has two Saturday games Dec 19)	Sat 4:00 PM (or kickoff)
Christmas leg	Thu Dec 24 - Fri Dec 25	Thu HOU@PHI; Fri GB@CHI, BUF@DEN, LAR@SEA. Eligible: HOU, PHI, GB, CHI, BUF, DEN, LAR, SEA (Rule 9a). Entries that have already used all 8 are eliminated (Rule 9).	Thu Dec 24, 4:00 PM
W16	Sun Dec 27 - Mon Dec 28 only	remaining 12 games; window opens Sat Dec 26 12:00 AM	Sat Dec 26, 4:00 PM
W17	Thu Dec 31 - Mon Jan 4	full slate	Sat Jan 2, 4:00 PM (or kickoff)
W18	Sun Jan 10	full slate	Sat Jan 9, 4:00 PM

Six teams play in both holiday legs: GB, LAR, CHI, PHI, BUF, DEN (https://www.winnerscircleproxy.com/blog/circa-survivor-strategy-how-to-navigate-the-holidays-53). Holiday-game schedule cross-checked against the full 2026 schedule/odds list at https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/2026-nfl-schedule-release-betting-lines-odds-for-every-game-this-season-164646872.html.

Note: Circa also lists a separate lower-tier page "Circa Survivor NEW" (https://www.circasports.com/contests/circa-survivor-new) that currently still shows 2025 ($15M) copy — not the 2026 main contest.

2. Current State

Week 1 2026 pick distribution — NOT yet published

Circa publishes the official pick distribution / "Team Availability" PDF after each deadline (via @CircaSports on X and its tracking pages; https://www.circasports.com/circa-survivor). As of Fri 9/11 the Week 1 deadline (Sat 4 PM PT) has not passed, so no official table exists. pick_pct_2026.csv therefore contains only projected public-pool percentages, clearly labeled:

Team	SurvivorGrid (Yahoo+ESPN public avg, 9/11)	PoolGenius projection (via RotoGrinders, 9/10)
LAC	27.6%	32.4%
JAX	23.5%	26.3%
DET	13.4%	14.1%
LV	—	8.0%
PIT	5.0%	4.1%
PHI	3.4%	5.0%
CHI	3.3%	—
SEA	2.6%	—
LAR	2.1%	—
BAL	1.6%	—
CIN	1.2%	—

Sources: https://www.survivorgrid.com/ ; https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-survivor-week-1-picks-2026-best-picks-pool-size-4214999 ; https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/nfl-survivor-week-1-picks-2026-how-market-moves-are-changing-the-best-pick. 4for4 expects ~28% on LAC and ~5.5% on LV in Circa specifically (https://www.4for4.com/2026/w1/splash-sports-survivor-picks-week-1-circa-survivor-nfl-pool-plays-jaguars-over-browns). SurvivorGrid's expected Week 1 elimination rate: 29.0%.

Historical analog — Circa Week 1 2025 actual distribution (18,718 entries): Broncos 7,173 (38.3%), Cardinals 4,171 (22.3%), Eagles 1,811 (9.7%); 62 entries were already dead before Sunday (bad opener picks / no pick). Source: https://vsin.com/the-vsin-daily/nfl-week-1-betting-best-bets-circa-contest-picks/. Circa's public field is far more concentrated on the top favorite than public-pool projections suggest.

2025 progression (18,718 entries → 5 winners)

Official Circa post for Week 1: https://x.com/CircaSports/status/1965494398952853781. Weekly recaps: FullTime Fantasy (https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/...), Covers, PoolGenius, RJ.

After leg	Alive	Eliminated	What happened	Source
Start	18,718	—	record field, $18,718,000	Circa X (above)
W1	18,145	573	quiet week	https://x.com/CircaSports/status/1965494398952853781
W2	~16,963	~1,182 [derived]	PoolGenius: "as of Week 3 ... 16,963 entries left, just over 90%"	https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/circa-survivor-picks/articles/circa-survivor-strategy-picks-week-3/
W3	13,811	~3,150 [derived]	13,811 entered Week 4	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/09/30/wk-4-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W4	12,404	1,407	GB-DAL 40-40 tie killed 478 (3.5%); LAC lost to NYG (784, 5.7%)	same
W5	4,669	7,735 (62%)	Bloodbath: ARI lost to TEN 22-21 (3,152 out); LAR lost to SF Thu (>25% of field); BUF lost to NE (756); SEA lost to TB (155)	https://www.covers.com/industry/week-5-wipes-out-62-percent-of-remaining-circa-survivor-in-stunning-fashion-oct-6-2025
W6	4,418	228	PHI lost to NYG (89), WAS lost to CHI (70)	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/10/14/wk-6-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W7	4,214	204	PIT lost to CIN 33-31 (181)	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/10/21/wk-7-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W8	2,057	2,152 (51%)	ATL lost to MIA 34-10; CIN lost to NYJ 39-38 (two of top-3 picks)	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/10/28/wk-8-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W9	1,769	288	GB (-1350) lost to CAR 16-13 (264); DET lost to MIN	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/11/04/wk-9-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W10	~1,000	~769 (42%+)	CAR lost to NO (490); BUF lost to MIA (261)	https://www.covers.com/industry/circa-survivor-contest-down-to-1k-remaining-entries-after-week-10-upsets-nov-10-2025
W11	936-939	61	CAR lost again (ATL, OT); NE was 44% of picks and won	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/11/18/wk-11-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W12	898-900	39-45	LV lost to CLE (29)	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/11/25/wk-12-circa-survivor-contest-update/
TG leg	49	849 (94.5%)	All four favorites lost: PHI lost to CHI Black Friday (489 = 54%), BAL (269), KC (78), CIN (10), DAL (8), GB (3). Parlay of the four dogs was +7765.	https://www.covers.com/industry/circa-survivor-pool-reduced-to-49-entries-after-upsets-by-bears-bengals-nov-28-2025
W13 (Sun/Mon)	45	4	LAR lost to CAR	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/12/02/wk-13-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W14	10	35	NO upset TB 24-20 (28); TEN over CLE (5); PHI lost (1)	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/12/09/wk-14-circa-survivor-contest-update/
W15-W16	10	0	—	https://fulltimefantasy.com/2025/12/23/wk-16-circa-survivor-contest-update/
Christmas leg	9	1	DAL lost to WAS (one entry had hedged with a $1.18M DAL moneyline bet)	https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/only-6-circa-survivor-entries-still-alive-for-18-7m-prize-3601089/ ; https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/only-6-over-18k-circa-175500044.html
W17	6	3	TB lost to MIA 20-17	same
W18	5 winners	1	Five 20-0 entries split $18,718,000 = $3,743,600 each	https://g3newswire.com/circa-sports-record-breaking-2026-2027-football-contests-surpass-over-12k-entries-ahead-of-sept-12-signup-deadline/

Minor count discrepancies between sources (e.g., 4,669 vs 4,418+228; 18,718 vs "18,178") are noted, not resolved. Lesson from 2025: the holiday leg and Week 5 did the damage, not Week 1.

2024 progression (14,266 entries → 8 winners)

After	Alive	Notes	Source
W1	8,702	CIN lost to NE: 4,895 out (34% of field on one team)	https://www.covers.com/industry/circa-survivor-pool-dwindles-after-sunday-early-games-bloodbath-sept-16-2024
W2	4,685	BAL lost to LV (2,304), DET to TB (859), JAX (259), DAL (255), IND (187)	same
W3	642	CIN lost to WAS (988), CLE to NYG (931); four 5.5+ pt favorites lost	https://www.covers.com/industry/95-percent-circa-survivor-entries-eliminated-following-week-3-sports-betting-september-24-2024
W4	480 (3.36%)	prior low was 19.9% after 4 weeks (2022)	https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/circa-survivor-and-millions-q1-results-85611
W6	216		PoolGenius (via search; page 403)
W10	105 (of 151)		PoolGenius Week 11 breakdown
W12	54 (of 99)	WAS (33), HOU (8)	https://x.com/CircaSports/status/1861452433106600141
TG	52		PoolGenius
End	8 winners, $1,783,250 each		https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-pool-picks/articles/how-the-2024-circa-survivor-winners-survived-all-20-weeks/

3. Lines

Week 1 (bet365 via FOX Sports, as of Sept 11, 9:58 AM ET) — https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2026-nfl-odds-week-1-lines-spreads-all-16-games

Cross-checked vs DraftKings via ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49428822/2026-nfl-week-1-schedule-odds-betting-point-spreads-totals) and the Vegas consensus page (https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/, Sept 10).

Date	Game	Spread	ML (fav/dog)	Note
Wed 9/9	NE @ SEA	SEA -3.5	-180/+150 (DK close)	FINAL SEA 13-10
Thu 9/10	SF @ LAR (Melbourne)	LAR -3.5 (DK); FOX/bet365 showed SF -3.5	-198/+164 (DK)	FINAL SF 27-7
Sun 9/13	ATL @ PIT	PIT -5.5	PIT -245 / ATL +200
Sun	BAL @ IND	BAL -3.5	BAL -180 / IND +150
Sun	BUF @ HOU	BUF -1.5	BUF -120 / HOU +100
Sun	CHI @ CAR	CHI -3.5	CHI -170 / CAR +145
Sun	CLE @ JAX	JAX -8.5	JAX -425 / CLE +325
Sun	NO @ DET	DET -6.5	DET -330 / NO +265	DK: DET -7, -310
Sun	NYJ @ TEN	TEN -1.5	TEN -120 / NYJ +100
Sun	TB @ CIN	CIN -3.5	CIN -200 / TB +165
Sun	ARI @ LAC	LAC -9.5	LAC -500 / ARI +375	opened -11.5 in May
Sun	GB @ MIN	MIN -1.5	MIN -125 / GB +105	GB opened -1.5 in May
Sun	MIA @ LV	LV -3.5	LV -170 / MIA +145
Sun	WAS @ PHI	PHI -5.5	PHI -240 / WAS +195	DK: PHI -6
Sun	DAL @ NYG	DAL -2.5	DAL -160 / NYG +135
Mon 9/14	DEN @ KC	KC -2.5	KC -150 / DEN +125

Week 2 (DraftKings spreads via 4for4 lookahead report, Sept 10) — https://www.4for4.com/2026/w1/week-2-nfl-odds-lookahead-lines-report

DET@BUF BUF -3 (Thu); CAR@ATL ATL -1.5; CIN@HOU HOU -2.5; CLE@TB TB -6.5; GB@NYJ GB -5.5; IND@KC KC -6.5; JAX@DEN DEN -3; LV@LAC LAC -9.5 (moved from -8.5); MIA@SF SF -10.5; MIN@CHI CHI -3; NO@BAL BAL -7.5; NYG@LAR LAR -9.5 (Mon; moved from -8.5); PHI@TEN PHI -5.5 (moved from -4.5); PIT@NE NE -4.5; SEA@ARI SEA -10; WAS@DAL DAL -4.5. Current Week 2 moneylines were not retrievable (TeamRankings/BetUS/RotoWire pages blocked or JS-loaded); the CSV carries DraftKings opening moneylines from May 14 (https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/opening-odds-2026/) flagged as stale.

Full-season lookahead grid (Weeks 3-18)

Yahoo Sports published spreads and totals for all 272 games at schedule release (page dated May 26, 2026): https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/2026-nfl-schedule-release-betting-lines-odds-for-every-game-this-season-164646872.html. Sportsbook Review lists the DraftKings openers (May 14) with moneylines for roughly half the slate: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/opening-odds-2026/. All 240 Weeks 3-18 games are in lines_2026.csv with home_win_prob derived from the spread via Φ(-spread/13.5) (moneyline-derived for Week 1). Caveat: these are 4-month-old openers; six pick'em games are listed with opposite -1.5 favorites between Yahoo and SBR (CAR@CLE, HOU@IND, NE@JAX, GB@NE, DAL@IND, DEN@PIT) and are flagged in the CSV. No source I could reach publishes a current Circa lookahead grid for every week; Circa's own game-of-the-year lines were not accessible. Vegas-based live lookahead pages that were 403/JS-only: TeamRankings, BetUS, RotoWire.

Notable lookahead spots (spread as of May): LAR -13.5 vs ARI (W6), SEA -13.5 vs ARI (W9), KC -11.5 vs ARI (W11), BUF -11.5 vs MIA (W11), SF -11.5 vs ARI (W3), DAL -10.5 vs ARI (W8), LAR -10.5 @ ARI (W10), GB -10.5 vs MIA (W15), BUF -10 vs NYJ (W18), NE -10.5 vs MIA (W18), LAC -9.5 vs NYJ (W11), DET -9.5 vs NYJ (W3), NE -9.5 vs NYJ (W6), DEN -9.5 vs MIA (W13), BAL -9.5 vs CLE (W16). Holiday legs are all tight: TG leg LAR -3.5, DET -2.5, DAL -1.5, BUF -2.5, PIT -1.5; Christmas leg PHI -2.5, CHI -1.5, BUF -1.5, SEA -1.5.

4. Strategy (Circa-specific, 2026)

The math of a 22,000-entry, 20-leg, no-tie contest

Unabated's framing: expected weeks-to-resolution ≈ log(1/entries) / log(weekly survival). At ~64% weekly survival a 10k field resolves around leg 20, so plan for all 20 picks rather than "survive this week" (https://unabated.com/post/your-survivor-contest-strategy).
VSiN: "you have to take 20 of the 32 NFL teams to win. There are not 20 really good teams" — inventory is the binding constraint (https://vsin.com/nfl/2026-nfl-survivor-pools-a-blueprint-for-all-18-or-20-circa-survivor-weeks/).
ESPN/Mike Clay: in big pools the optimal pick trades a few points of win probability for lower pick % and lower future value; in tiny pools just maximize win probability (https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/49880798/espn-nfl-survivor-week-1-survivor-pool-strategy-advice-picks-predictions).
Multi-entry: Clay's suggested Week 1 splits — 1 entry: JAX; 3: JAX/LAC/LV; 5: 2 JAX, LAC, LV, PIT; 10: 3 JAX, 3 LAC, 2 LV, 2 PIT (same URL).
Circa's field is chalkier than public pools (2025 W1: 38% on DEN); leverage from fading the top favorite is therefore larger at Circa than the public-pool projections imply (VSiN daily, above).
Ties eliminate (2025 W4 GB-DAL tie took 478 entries) — prefer games with lower tie risk, i.e., avoid near-pick'em picks when possible.

Holiday-leg planning (the Circa-specific edge)

TG leg (10 teams; window closes Wed 4 PM PT): GB, LAR, CHI, DET, PHI, DAL, KC, BUF, DEN, PIT. Christmas leg (8 teams; closes Thu 4 PM PT): HOU, PHI, GB, CHI, BUF, DEN, LAR, SEA. Six teams (GB, LAR, CHI, PHI, BUF, DEN) are in both; entries need two different holiday teams (https://www.winnerscircleproxy.com/blog/circa-survivor-strategy-how-to-navigate-the-holidays-53).
Establish The Run (Reynolds): TG leg is "absolutely brutal" — best options LAR vs GB and DEN @ PIT; Christmas: PHI vs HOU will be extremely high-owned because everyone saves PHI (https://establishtherun.com/reynolds-survivor-pool-preview-3/).
VSiN blueprint allocation: TG = DET (vs CHI) [or DAL if you spend them Thanksgiving Eve]; Christmas = DEN vs BUF (home altitude, BUF has W17-18 safety nets vs MIA/NYJ); uses PHI @ ARI in W13 and GB @ CHI Christmas Day... i.e., the exact holiday pairing is where 2026 entries will differentiate (https://vsin.com/nfl/2026-nfl-survivor-pools-a-blueprint-for-all-18-or-20-circa-survivor-weeks/).
2025 lesson: the TG leg wiped out 94.5% of the field when all four favorites lost — the holiday legs are the highest-variance legs of the contest; holding two or three holiday-eligible teams in reserve is standard. 2024's TG leg by contrast lost only 2 of 54.
Unabated: Christmas window is short (in 2025 it closed 9 AM Christmas Day; in 2026 it closes 4 PM Thu Dec 24) — have picks ready in advance (https://unabated.com/post/your-survivor-contest-strategy).

Consensus "save" vs "use early" teams (2026)

Save (high future value / holiday-eligible): DET (Clay: highest future value, 70% avg remaining win prob; premium W3 vs NYJ, W5 @ ARI, TG vs CHI), LAR (W6 vs ARI ~90% per RotoGrinders, W10 @ ARI, TG/Christmas eligible), PHI (holiday chalk), BUF (W11 vs MIA, W18 vs NYJ, both holiday legs), DEN (both holiday legs; W11 vs LV, W13 vs MIA), BAL (W16 vs CLE 82%, W4 vs TEN), KC (W11 vs ARI, W9 vs NYJ; ETR says wait-and-see). Sources: ESPN Clay; https://rotogrinders.com/articles/nfl-survivor-week-1-picks-2026-best-picks-pool-size-4214999 ; https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/nfl-survivor-pool-picks-2026-grid-odds-strategy-126290 ; ETR.
Use early (low future value, no holiday role): JAX (Clay FV rank outside top 14; tough schedule after W1 — VSiN, 4for4, SI, PoolGenius all list JAX as the Week 1 default), LAC (FV rank ~2nd by Clay but W2 vs LV and W11 vs NYJ are its best spots; several sources say spend LAC in W1 or W2), LV (Clay: 30th in future value — best Week 1 contrarian), PIT (aging roster, use before weather; but note PIT is TG-eligible), SF (VSiN: W3 vs ARI -11.5, no holiday role).
Avoid altogether: ARI, MIA, CLE, TEN, NYJ, NYG, CAR, ATL (weak-team list, VSiN; "fade the Cardinals and Titans multiple times", SGP/VSiN).

Week 1 picks and typical Weeks 1-4 chalk

Week 1 board: LAC -9.5 (77-81% win prob, ~28-32% pick), JAX -8.5 (72-77%, ~24-26%), DET -6.5/-7 (69-74%, ~13-14%), PIT -5.5 (64-70%, ~4-5%), PHI -5.5 (67-69%, 3-5%), LV -3.5 (60-64%, 5-8%). Sources: ESPN Clay; SurvivorGrid; FTN; RotoGrinders; https://www.4for4.com/2026/w1/splash-sports-survivor-picks-week-1-circa-survivor-nfl-pool-plays-jaguars-over-browns.
Consensus Circa recommendation: JAX (VSiN, 4for4, SI, Clay's 1-entry pick, PoolGenius/FTN "unusual combination of safety without spending future value"). Contrarian: LV (Clay, SI's MacMillan) or PIT (4for4, VSiN "mix it up"). CBS/SportsLine's R.J. White warns off LAC (new O-line, lost to ARI in 2024, better spots later) (https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/2026-nfl-survivor-pool-picks-for-week-1/). 4for4 calls DET "very trappy" and PHI-WAS a divisional coin flip.
VSiN's full 20-leg blueprint (May lines): W1 JAX, W2 LAC, W3 SF, W4 MIN, W5 CIN, W6 NE, W7 HOU, W8 DAL, W9 NO, W10 IND, W11 KC, TG DET, W12 TB, W13 PHI, W14 BAL, W15 GB, XM DEN, W16 PIT, W17 SEA, W18 BUF.
Expected Week 2-4 chalk from the lookahead: W2 SF -10.5 vs MIA, LAC -9.5 vs LV, LAR -9.5 vs NYG, SEA -10 @ ARI; W3 SF -11.5 vs ARI, DET -9.5 vs NYJ, GB -7.5 vs ATL; W4 BAL -8.5 vs TEN, CHI -8.5 vs NYJ, MIN -7.5 vs MIA, NYG -7 vs ARI.
Historical Week 1 sweat: 7+ point favorites in Week 1 since 2016 are 20-8 SU (VSiN, https://vsin.com/nfl/nfl-survivor-pool-week-1-picks/).

Sources not reachable / not found

Sharp Football Analysis: no 2026 survivor-specific article found; only Rich Hribar's Week 1 game "Worksheets" (https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/). [not found]
Fantasy Life survivor content: not surfaced by search (FantasyLabs' survivor tool articles were: https://www.fantasylabs.com/articles/nfl-survivor-week-1-picks-2026-best-picks-and-strategy/). [not found]
Reddit r/survivorpool: blocked in this environment. [not accessible]
Sports Gambling Podcast "How To Win Circa Survivor LIVE From Vegas" (Aug 28): page 403 (https://www.sportsgamblingpodcast.com/2026/08/28/how-to-win-circa-survivor-live-from-vegas-ep-2668/). [not accessible]
PoolGenius Circa pages (403); their numbers are cited via FTN/RotoGrinders/search snippets.

NFL Week 9 board

Teams you have used

The path from here

Pool status

NFL Week 125,017 in, 8,039 out (32%), 16,978 through, 18 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 216,978 in, 8,368 out (49%), 8,610 through, 42 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 38,610 in, 2,318 out (27%), 6,292 through, 3 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 46,292 in, 320 out (5%), 5,972 through, 1 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 55,972 in, 3,062 out (51%), 2,910 through, 3 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 62,910 in, 1,633 out (56%), 1,277 through, 1 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 71,277 in, 617 out (48%), 660 through, 2 submitted nothing

Lost with

Survived with

NFL Week 8660 in, 50 out (8%), 610 through

Lost with

Survived with

The field’s remaining teams

Future value

How to think about Circa Survivor

Surviving the week matters less than surviving the pool

Save the teams you’ll need for Thanksgiving and Christmas

When the field’s pick share runs ahead of a team’s win probability, the crowd is overpaying

Every entry eliminated makes the rest of the pool worth more

Research

1. 2026 Rules

Is Week 1 already locked as of Fri Sept 11?

The 20-leg structure (Rule 7-9, 11-13)

2. Current State

Week 1 2026 pick distribution — NOT yet published

2025 progression (18,718 entries → 5 winners)

2024 progression (14,266 entries → 8 winners)

3. Lines

Week 1 (bet365 via FOX Sports, as of Sept 11, 9:58 AM ET) — https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2026-nfl-odds-week-1-lines-spreads-all-16-games

Week 2 (DraftKings spreads via 4for4 lookahead report, Sept 10) — https://www.4for4.com/2026/w1/week-2-nfl-odds-lookahead-lines-report

Full-season lookahead grid (Weeks 3-18)

4. Strategy (Circa-specific, 2026)

The math of a 22,000-entry, 20-leg, no-tie contest

Holiday-leg planning (the Circa-specific edge)

Consensus "save" vs "use early" teams (2026)

Week 1 picks and typical Weeks 1-4 chalk

Sources not reachable / not found