Upside and risk model
These are model estimates, not measured probabilities. Each player starts from a historical base rate for his ADP tier (about 20-25% of players drafted as positional 13-36 finish inside the top 12; about a third of top-12 picks finish 12+ spots worse or miss 5+ games) and the odds are shifted by transparent signals: projections vs ADP, source disagreement, movement in the last 20 real boards, projected games, age, experience window, 2025 workload and TD rate, team change, and Footballguys staff sentiment. Reasons are listed so you can disagree with any one of them.
Definitions: breakout = finishes at least 8 positional spots better than ADP implies and inside the top 12 (top 6 for QB/TE). Downturn = finishes at least 12 spots worse than ADP implies, or misses 5+ games.
High-upside players (ADP 25+), ranked by breakout probability
| Player | Pos | ADP | Age | Proj FFPC pts | P(breakout) | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | WR BAL | 35 | 25.97 | 228 | 51% | projections rank him 6 spots above ADP; year 4 (classic breakout window); top offense (Vegas 25.3 ppg) |
| David Montgomery | RB HOU | 48 | 29.23 | 222 | 51% | projections rank him 9 spots above ADP; projected 152% of 2025 PPG (role growth); new team; experts wish they had more |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB WAS | 96 | 25.39 | 159 | 51% | projections rank him 7 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; year 2 (classic breakout window); projected 129% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Tee Higgins | WR CIN | 43 | 27.62 | 218 | 41% | projections rank him 8 spots above ADP; top offense (Vegas 25.6 ppg) |
| Jameson Williams | WR DET | 50 | 25.43 | 211 | 41% | projections rank him 9 spots above ADP; top offense (Vegas 25.9 ppg) |
| Sam LaPorta | TE DET | 62 | 25.63 | 195 | 39% | projection sources disagree; year 4 (classic breakout window); top offense (Vegas 25.9 ppg); experts wish they had more |
| Brian Thomas | WR JAX | 81 | 23.9 | 165 | 39% | projection sources disagree; year 3 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB JAX | 121 | 26.9 | 337 | 39% | projections rank him 4 spots above ADP; experts wish they had more |
| Christian Watson | WR GB | 53 | 27.31 | 213 | 37% | projections rank him 12 spots above ADP |
| Jalen Coker | WR CAR | 129 | 24.84 | 182 | 37% | projections rank him 24 spots above ADP; year 3 (classic breakout window); projected 142% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB NE | 57 | 28.52 | 191 | 36% | projections rank him 4 spots above ADP; experts wish they had more |
| Braelon Allen | RB NYJ | 160 | 22.61 | 81 | 36% | projections rank him 5 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; year 3 (classic breakout window); projected 142% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Ladd McConkey | WR LAC | 36 | 24.8 | 209 | 35% | year 3 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Parker Washington | WR JAX | 48 | 24.45 | 199 | 35% | year 4 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Quinshon Judkins | RB CLE | 54 | 22.84 | 187 | 35% | year 2 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Jayden Reed | WR GB | 94 | 26.34 | 177 | 35% | projections rank him 10 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; year 4 (classic breakout window) |
| Matthew Golden | WR GB | 101 | 23.09 | 159 | 35% | projections rank him 5 spots above ADP; year 2 (classic breakout window); projected 203% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Bucky Irving | RB TB | 50 | 24.04 | 204 | 33% | year 3 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Mike Evans | WR SF | 62 | 33.03 | 184 | 33% | projections rank him 4 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; recent boards drafting him earlier; new team |
| Isaiah Likely | TE NYG | 72 | 26.37 | 185 | 33% | projected 231% of 2025 PPG (role growth); new team; experts wish they had more |
| Tyjae Spears | RB TEN | 136 | 25.21 | 115 | 32% | projections rank him 10 spots above ADP; year 4 (classic breakout window) |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB CAR | 100 | 27.23 | 172 | 31% | projections rank him 14 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; projected 139% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Khalil Shakir | WR BUF | 147 | 26.58 | 151 | 31% | projections rank him 12 spots above ADP; projection sources disagree; top offense (Vegas 26.1 ppg) |
| Dylan Sampson | RB CLE | 151 | 21.96 | 84 | 31% | projections rank him 6 spots above ADP; year 2 (classic breakout window) |
| Cam Skattebo | RB NYG | 47 | 24.57 | 198 | 30% | year 2 (classic breakout window); experts wish they had more |
| Brock Purdy | QB SF | 134 | 26.68 | 324 | 30% | top offense (Vegas 25.0 ppg); experts wish they had more |
| Luther Burden | WR CHI | 42 | 22.72 | 198 | 29% | year 2 (classic breakout window); projected 149% of 2025 PPG (role growth) |
| Malik Davis | RB DAL | 161 | 27.76 | 78 | 29% | projections rank him 5 spots above ADP; projected 129% of 2025 PPG (role growth); top offense (Vegas 25.4 ppg) |
| DJ Moore | WR BUF | 45 | 29.38 | 196 | 28% | projected 124% of 2025 PPG (role growth); new team; top offense (Vegas 26.1 ppg) |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB NE | 71 | 23.86 | 160 | 28% | year 2 (classic breakout window) |
Players set up for a downturn (ADP inside 110), ranked by probability
| Player | Pos | ADP | Age | Proj FFPC pts | P(downturn) | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | WR NE | 31 | 29.17 | 144 | 80% | ADP is 36 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; recent boards drafting him later (69 vs 31); age 29 |
| Josh Jacobs | RB GB | 92 | 28.55 | 28 | 80% | ADP is 32 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; projected 5.8 games; age 29 (cliff 28+) |
| Malik Nabers | WR NYG | 27 | 23.1 | 205 | 71% | ADP is 9 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; projected 14.4 games; TD rate due to regress |
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR SF | 91 | 23.7 | 100 | 70% | ADP is 29 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; recent boards drafting him later (145 vs 91) |
| Travis Etienne | RB NO | 37 | 27.6 | 184 | 69% | ADP is 7 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; age 28; projected 83% of 2025 PPG (regression) |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR TB | 45 | 23.88 | 177 | 68% | ADP is 7 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; TD rate due to regress; experts fading at cost |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB DEN | 95 | 27.71 | 127 | 65% | projection sources disagree; projected 13.6 games; age 28; projected 81% of 2025 PPG (regression) |
| Harold Fannin | TE CLE | 62 | 22.12 | 179 | 64% | ADP is 5 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; TD rate due to regress; weak offense (Vegas 17.9 ppg) |
| Chris Godwin | WR TB | 67 | 30.51 | 164 | 64% | ADP is 7 spots ahead of projections; age 31 (cliff 30+) |
| Marvin Harrison | WR ARI | 69 | 24.06 | 157 | 64% | ADP is 11 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; TD rate due to regress; weak offense (Vegas 18.5 ppg) |
| Quentin Johnston | WR LAC | 84 | 24.99 | 148 | 64% | ADP is 9 spots ahead of projections; projected 72% of 2025 PPG (regression); TD rate due to regress |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB SF | 7 | 30.23 | 272 | 63% | age 30 (cliff 28+); projected 75% of 2025 PPG (regression); 413 touches in 2025 (heavy-workload regression); experts fading at cost |
| Courtland Sutton | WR DEN | 94 | 30.89 | 158 | 63% | age 31 (cliff 30+); projected 78% of 2025 PPG (regression); TD rate due to regress |
| KC Concepcion | WR CLE | 94 | 21.94 | 144 | 62% | ADP is 11 spots ahead of projections; weak offense (Vegas 17.9 ppg) |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB ARI | 32 | 21.25 | 210 | 61% | projected 14.0 games; weak offense (Vegas 18.5 ppg); experts fading at cost |
| Jadarian Price | RB SEA | 55 | 22.9 | 160 | 60% | ADP is 5 spots ahead of projections; experts fading at cost |
| Rome Odunze | WR CHI | 61 | 24.25 | 164 | 60% | ADP is 8 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree; TD rate due to regress |
| Mike Evans | WR SF | 62 | 33.03 | 184 | 59% | projection sources disagree; age 33 (cliff 30+); TD rate due to regress; new team |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB IND | 8 | 27.62 | 265 | 58% | age 28; projected 83% of 2025 PPG (regression); 369 touches in 2025 (heavy-workload regression); experts fading at cost |
| Rico Dowdle | RB PIT | 80 | 28.22 | 160 | 58% | age 28 (cliff 28+); projected 85% of 2025 PPG (regression); new team |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB JAX | 55 | 24.54 | 162 | 57% | ADP is 4 spots ahead of projections; TD rate due to regress; experts fading at cost |
| Davante Adams | WR LAR | 57 | 33.69 | 183 | 57% | age 34 (cliff 30+); projected 75% of 2025 PPG (regression); TD rate due to regress |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR DEN | 35 | 27.77 | 200 | 56% | ADP is 5 spots ahead of projections; TD rate due to regress; new team |
| Terry McLaurin | WR WAS | 57 | 30.96 | 186 | 56% | projection sources disagree; age 31 (cliff 30+); TD rate due to regress |
| Jonathon Brooks | RB CAR | 75 | 23.12 | 114 | 56% | ADP is 14 spots ahead of projections; projection sources disagree |
| George Kittle | TE SF | 68 | 32.9 | 191 | 55% | age 33 (cliff 31+); TD rate due to regress; experts fading at cost |
| Stefon Diggs | WR WAS | 110 | 32.76 | 163 | 55% | age 33 (cliff 30+); projected 85% of 2025 PPG (regression); new team |
| Rashee Rice | WR KC | 31 | 26.36 | 217 | 54% | projected 14.3 games; projected 81% of 2025 PPG (regression); TD rate due to regress |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR TEN | 106 | 25.65 | 147 | 54% | projection sources disagree; projected 69% of 2025 PPG (regression); new team |
| Dallas Goedert | TE PHI | 84 | 31.66 | 181 | 53% | age 32 (cliff 31+); TD rate due to regress |
How to use this in the draft
- The Optimizer shows Boom% and Bust% for every player. The Tournament ceiling weight in Settings adds
weight × (Boom × 0.25 − Bust × 0.35) × projected pointsto a player's value, so a high-ceiling player is pushed up and a fragile one pushed down. Set it to 0 for a pure projection draft; 0.5-1.0 for a $1M-chasing build. - Both lists are only as good as their inputs. Coverage of age/2025 stats: 191 players.