The Record
Every call we published, graded against what the players actually scored. The misses come first.
298–38
89% right
440 made no claim (Hold, No action). 34 never took the field. 810 calls counted in all.
Week 3 is still being played. Week 3 grades land when the results are in.
Start here
What we got wrong
The calls that missed by the most, worst first. The quote is what we published at the time.
- Davante AdamsWR · LARWeek 2
Adams put up 5.6 points and Stafford 6.7, which is not a slump, that's just what an aging passing game looks like now.
We said Bench. He scored 39.5 against a line of 9.0.
- Caleb WilliamsQB · CHIWeek 2
Williams dropped 40 points in Week 1 and is favored at home, so he starts himself regardless of what a bettor thinks about the spread.
We said Start. He scored 10.1 against a line of 20.8.
2 more takes made the same call that week.
- Drake MayeQB · NEWeek 2
Maye is rostered at 100% ownership for a reason, and one bad stretch doesn't erase a 34.8 value-over-replacement projection.
We said Start. He scored 11.1 against a line of 20.8.
One more take made the same call that week.
Mike Vrabel didn't want his Sunday ruined by questions about Drake Maye's struggles
- Colston LovelandTE · CHIWeek 2
A rookie tight end goose-egging Week 1 is not a crisis, it's a sample size of one.
We said Start. He scored 1.8 against a line of 11.3.
One more take made the same call that week.
Colston Loveland Fantasy Week 2 Start or Sit: Buy the Bounce Back Now - Pro Football Network
- Dallas GoedertTE · PHIWeek 2
Goedert dropped 25.7 in Week 1 and sits on a 39.5 total against a soft Titans defense as a 7-point favorite, so nothing here should move him off your lineup card.
We said Start. He scored 1.9 against a line of 11.3.
Dallas Goedert injury update: Latest news on Eagles TE's status in Week 2 game - sports.yahoo.com
- Malik NabersWR · NYGWeek 2
Nabers is a target hog regardless of who's throwing him the ball, and Likely just posted a 31.8-point week with backup quality quarterback play already baked in.
We said Start. He scored 1.1 against a line of 9.0.
One more take made the same call that week.
The other half
What we got right
The same ordering from the other end: the calls that cleared the line by the most.
- Davante AdamsWR · LARWeek 2
Adams and Stafford are both rostered everywhere, so a blowout over a Dart-less Giants defense tells you nothing you didn't already know.
We said Start. He scored 39.5 against a line of 9.0.
13 more takes made the same call that week.
- CeeDee LambWR · DALWeek 2
Lamb is a top-100-owned WR1 on your roster; a column telling you to start him is a column that exists to sell ad space, not to inform you.
We said Start. He scored 35.3 against a line of 9.0.
Fantasy Football Start or Sit Week 2: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Brandon Aubrey - si.com
- Josh AllenQB · BUFWeek 2
Allen dropped 39 points in Week 1 and gets a 54.5 total as a home favorite over Detroit.
We said Start. He scored 43.3 against a line of 20.8.
2 more takes made the same call that week.
- Jonathan TaylorRB · INDWeek 2
Taylor is a top-6 sharp back rostered everywhere, so a betting column telling you he's good isn't news.
We said Start. He scored 29.2 against a line of 7.5.
- Dalton SchultzTE · HOUWeek 2
A -5.1 value over replacement and a sharp rank of 161 is not what 'trustworthy' looks like.
We said Start. He scored 32.0 against a line of 11.3.
One more take made the same call that week.
Dalton Schultz Fantasy Week 2 Start or Sit: A Streamer You Can Trust - Yahoo Sports
- Jaxson DartQB · NYGWeek 2
It also barely matters: Dart is the QB111 in sharp terms with 5.7 points of value over replacement, which is another way of saying he was a bye-week patch.
We said Fade. He scored 1.0 against a line of 20.8.
Giants QB Jaxson Dart could miss rest of season with knee injury: Source
Every start/sit call
The start/sit page tiers every rostered player in the field before kickoff, and every one of those rows is graded here. Nobody drew this list up afterwards, which is why it is the number worth arguing with.
516–8786% right
- avoid
- 322–1496%
- 0 no claim · 2397 did not play
- bench
- 116–2284%
- 0 no claim · 0 did not play
- start
- 41–3455%
- 0 no claim · 0 did not play
- must start
- 37–1769%
- 0 no claim · 1 did not play
- flex
- 0–0no claim
- 77 no claim · 0 did not play
- out
- 0–0no claim
- 143 no claim · 0 did not play
Which way we moved a player
Each take also says whether a player is heading up or down. A weaker claim than the action, and graded the same way.
608–4693% right
- down
- 537–2196%
- 0 no claim · 79 did not play
- up
- 71–2574%
- 0 no claim · 4 did not play
- neutral
- 0–0no claim
- 373 no claim · 0 did not play
The rule
Every call is graded against the start-worthy line: the FFPC points the last startable player at that position actually scored that week, in a 12-team lineup — the same replacement level the draft board, the waiver board and the tier column all run on. Start, Add, must start, start and an up arrow are right when the player beat the line; Bench, Fade, bench, avoid and a down arrow are right when he did not. An Add is graded on the week after the news, because that is when a roster move pays. Hold, No action, flex, out and a neutral arrow claim nothing, so they are counted above and never graded. A player who did not take the field has no result and stays out of the win-loss entirely. The margin is his points minus the line, which is the order the two lists above are in.