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Sharp Six

BUF at HOU

Week 1 · Final

Away

BUF

Buffalo Bills

36

Home

HOU

Houston Texans

31

The line it closed on

Spread

BUF −1.5

Total 44.5

Implied points

BUF
23.0
HOU
21.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

No forecast stored for this game yet.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on HOU. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

BUF at HOU

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

HOU +1.5

Wrong · −3.5

Market BUF −1.5 over HOU. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.1 toward HOU. Our number HOU +0.4, an edge of +1.1 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · HOU +1.1· wrong
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.1 toward HOU.

Final: BUF 36 at HOU 31

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 1

Buffalo Bills

No start/sit calls for BUF in week 1 yet. They land with the Tuesday run.

Houston Texans

No start/sit calls for HOU in week 1 yet. They land with the Tuesday run.

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.