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Sharp Six

SEA at ARI

Week 2 · Final

Away

SEA

Seattle Seahawks

31

Home

ARI

Arizona Cardinals

7

The line it closed on

Spread

SEA −3.5

Total 40.5

Implied points

SEA
22.0
ARI
18.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 4 mph, 0% chance of rain, 100°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on ARI. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

SEA at ARI

Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

SEA −3.5

Right · +20.5

Market SEA −3.5 over ARI. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 0.4 toward ARI. Our number SEA −3.1, an edge of −0.4 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · ARI +0.4· wrong
  • Rest · SEA +1.5· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 0.4 toward ARI.
  • SEA come in on 11 days' rest to ARI's 7.

Final: SEA 31 at ARI 7

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Seattle Seahawks

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Drew Lock15.4Bench

Jalen Milroe0.0Avoid

Sam Darnold0.0Out

Skyler Howard0.0Avoid

RB
Jadarian Price10.6Start

George Holani7.9Flex

Emanuel Wilson2.1Bench

Brady Russell0.0Avoid

Jacardia Wright0.0Avoid

Robbie Ouzts0.0Out

Zach Charbonnet0.0Out

WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba19.5Must start

Cooper Kupp7.6Flex

Rashid Shaheed7.6Flex

Tory Horton2.1Bench

Emmanuel Henderson0.0Avoid

Irv Charles0.0Out

Jake Bobo0.0Out

Julian Hicks0.0Avoid

Malick Meiga0.0Avoid

Montorie Foster0.0Out

Ricky White0.0Avoid

Velus Jones0.0Avoid

TE
AJ Barner11.2Start

Elijah Arroyo4.5Bench

Eric Saubert0.5Avoid

Nick Kallerup0.0Avoid

K
Jason Myers6.8Flex

Arizona Cardinals

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Jacoby Brissett13.6Bench

Carson Beck0.0Out

Gardner Minshew0.0Avoid

RB
Jeremiyah Love12.6Start

Tyler Allgeier6.3Flex

Evan Hull0.0Avoid

James Conner0.0Out

Tavien Feaster0.0Avoid

Trey Benson0.0Out

Zonovan Knight0.0Avoid

WR
Michael Wilson9.1Start

Marvin Harrison8.6Flex

Kendrick Bourne3.9Bench

Jalen Brooks0.3Avoid

Devin Duvernay0.2Avoid

Harrison Wallace0.0Avoid

Reggie Virgil0.0Out

Simi Fehoko0.0Avoid

TE
Trey McBride18.2Must start

Elijah Higgins3.4Avoid

Hunter Long0.0Avoid

Jameson Geers0.0Out

Shawn Bowman0.0Avoid

Teagan Quitoriano0.0Avoid

Tip Reiman0.0Out

Travis Vokolek0.0Avoid

K
Chad Ryland5.7Avoid

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.