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Sharp Six

WAS at DAL

Week 2 · Final

Away

WAS

Washington Commanders

20

Home

DAL

Dallas Cowboys

37

The line it closed on

Spread

DAL −3.5

Total 51.5

Implied points

WAS
24.0
DAL
27.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 5 mph, 5% chance of rain, 96°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on DAL. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

WAS at DAL

Sun, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

DAL −3.5

Right · +13.5

Market DAL −3.5 over WAS. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 0.8 toward WAS. Our number DAL −2.7, an edge of −0.8 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · WAS +0.8· wrong
  • Public · DAL +1.0· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 0.8 toward WAS.
  • 68% of the spread money is on WAS. That is a point to DAL.

Final: WAS 20 at DAL 37

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Washington Commanders

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Athan Kaliakmanis0.0Out

Jayden Daniels0.0Out

Marcus Mariota0.0Avoid

Sam Hartman0.0Avoid

RB
Jacory Croskey-Merritt13.5Start

Rachaad White9.6Start

Kaytron Allen3.6Bench

Craig Reynolds0.0Avoid

Jeremy McNichols0.0Out

Robert Henry0.0Avoid

Wendell Smallwood0.0Avoid

WR
Terry McLaurin14.0Must start

Stefon Diggs12.7Start

Antonio Williams7.4Flex

Dyami Brown2.4Bench

Jaylin Lane1.7Bench

Treylon Burks0.5Avoid

Jaden Bradley0.0Avoid

Luke McCaffrey0.0Out

Van Jefferson0.0Avoid

TE
John Bates6.3Flex

Ben Sinnott5.6Bench

Chig Okonkwo0.0Out

Colson Yankoff0.0Avoid

Jack Westover0.0Avoid

Temarrick Hemingway0.0Avoid

K
Drew Stevens6.9Start

Dallas Cowboys

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Dak Prescott25.5Must start

Joe Milton0.0Avoid

Sam Howell0.0Avoid

RB
Javonte Williams17.1Must start

Emari Demercado4.7Flex

Israel Abanikanda0.0Avoid

Ito Smith0.0Avoid

Malik Davis0.0Out

Tyler Goodson0.0Out

WR
CeeDee Lamb18.9Must start

George Pickens16.6Must start

Ryan Flournoy8.3Flex

KaVontae Turpin4.0Bench

Jonathan Mingo0.5Avoid

Anthony Smith0.0Avoid

Camden Brown0.0Out

Jordan Hudson0.0Avoid

TE
Jake Ferguson13.3Must start

Luke Schoonmaker2.2Avoid

Brevyn Spann-Ford1.8Avoid

DJ Rogers0.0Out

James Mitchell0.0Avoid

Michael Trigg0.0Avoid

Princeton Fant0.0Out

K
Brandon Aubrey7.7Must start

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.