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Sharp Six

CIN at HOU

Week 2 · Final

Away

CIN

Cincinnati Bengals

20

Home

HOU

Houston Texans

6

The line it closed on

Spread

HOU −3

Total 45.5

Implied points

CIN
21.3
HOU
24.3

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 1 mph, 0% chance of rain, 93°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on HOU. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

CIN at HOU

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★★☆☆☆

CIN +3

Right · +17.0

Market HOU −3 over CIN. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.7 toward CIN. Our number CIN +1.3, an edge of +1.7 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · CIN +1.7· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.7 toward CIN.

Final: CIN 20 at HOU 6

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Cincinnati Bengals

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Joe Burrow22.1Must start

Joe Flacco0.0Avoid

Josh Johnson0.0Out

Sean Clifford0.0Avoid

RB
Chase Brown14.5Must start

Samaje Perine4.8Flex

Tahj Brooks0.7Bench

Kendall Milton0.0Avoid

Kentrel Bullock0.0Avoid

WR
Ja'Marr Chase18.7Must start

Tee Higgins15.0Must start

Andrei Iosivas5.6Bench

Colbie Young0.8Avoid

Dohnte Meyers0.5Avoid

Jordan Moore0.0Avoid

Ke'Shawn Williams0.0Avoid

Noah Thomas0.0Avoid

TE
Mike Gesicki7.6Flex

Erick All3.5Avoid

Drew Sample2.4Avoid

Jack Endries0.8Avoid

Tanner Hudson0.0Avoid

K
Evan McPherson6.2Bench

Houston Texans

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
C.J. Stroud20.4Start

Davis Mills0.0Avoid

Graham Mertz0.0Out

RB
David Montgomery17.1Must start

Woody Marks9.0Start

British Brooks0.1Avoid

Jawhar Jordan0.0Avoid

Noah Whittington0.0Avoid

WR
Kayshon Boutte8.8Start

Jaylin Noel7.6Flex

Xavier Hutchinson7.3Flex

Jared Wayne2.8Bench

Lewis Bond0.6Avoid

Bryce Oliver0.0Avoid

Daniel Sobkowicz0.0Avoid

Jayden Higgins0.0Out

Josh Kelly0.0Avoid

Mitchell Tinsley0.0Avoid

Nico Collins0.0Out

Tank Dell0.0Out

TE
Dalton Schultz12.8Start

Foster Moreau5.0Bench

Marlin Klein3.5Avoid

Cade Stover2.1Avoid

Brevin Jordan0.0Out

Zaire Mitchell-Paden0.0Avoid

K
Ka'imi Fairbairn7.3Must start

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.