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Sharp Six

LAC at BUF

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Away

LAC

Los Angeles Chargers

Home

BUF

Buffalo Bills

The wire

Spread

BUF −7

Total 50.5

Implied points

LAC
21.8
BUF
28.8

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 13 mph, 0% chance of rain, 66°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

BUF: opened −7 · now −7 across 4 pulls

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on BUF. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

LAC at BUF

Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

LAC +7

Market BUF −7 over LAC. The market’s own numbers make this line 2.7 points too kind to BUF. Results add 1.6 toward BUF. Our number LAC +5.9, an edge of +1.1 before the signals.

  • Ratings · LAC +1.1
  • Rest · BUF +1.5
  • Public · LAC +1.0
  • The market's own numbers make this line 2.7 points too kind to BUF; results add 1.6 toward BUF.
  • BUF come in on 10 days' rest to LAC's 7.
  • 67% of the spread money is on BUF. That is a point to LAC.
Line history4 pulls

LAC: opened +7 · taken at +7 · now +7

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

Start/sit, week 3

Los Angeles Chargers

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Justin Herbert19.4Flex

DJ Uiagalelei0.0Avoid

Trey Lance0.0Avoid

RB
Omarion Hampton15.3Must start

Keaton Mitchell7.3Flex

Kimani Vidal1.0Bench

Amar Johnson0.0Avoid

Gregory Desrosiers0.0Avoid

WR
Ladd McConkey15.2Must start

Quentin Johnston9.8Start

Tre' Harris7.9Flex

Brenen Thompson2.1Bench

Derius Davis1.8Bench

Marquez Valdes-Scantling1.4Bench

Gary Jennings0.0Avoid

KeAndre Lambert-Smith0.0Out

KJ Hill0.0Avoid

Theo Wease0.0Avoid

TE
Oronde Gadsden10.4Flex

Charlie Kolar0.0Out

David Njoku0.0Out

Evan Svoboda0.0Avoid

Hayden Rucci0.0Avoid

Patrick Herbert0.0Avoid

K
Cameron Dicker7.7Bench

Buffalo Bills

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Josh Allen27.9Must start

Kyle Allen0.0Avoid

Shane Buechele0.0Avoid

RB
James Cook16.5Must start

Ray Davis2.3Bench

Ty Johnson2.1Bench

WR
DJ Moore11.2Start

Khalil Shakir10.9Start

Keon Coleman6.7Flex

Joshua Palmer2.0Bench

Skyler Bell0.3Avoid

Greg Dortch0.0Avoid

Ja'Mori Maclin0.0Avoid

Stephen Gosnell0.0Avoid

Trent Sherfield0.0Avoid

Tyrell Shavers0.0Out

TE
Dalton Kincaid16.1Must start

Dawson Knox5.2Bench

Jackson Hawes1.5Avoid

Keleki Latu0.0Avoid

K
Tyler Bass8.9Start

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.