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Sharp Six

LAR at DEN

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET

Away

LAR

Los Angeles Rams

Home

DEN

Denver Broncos

The wire

Spread

LAR −2.5

Total 44.5

Implied points

LAR
23.5
DEN
21.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 18 mph, 0% chance of rain, 81°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

DEN: opened +2.25 · now +2.5 across 4 pulls

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on DEN. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

LAR at DEN

Sun, Sep 27, 8:20 PM ET★★☆☆☆

DEN +2.5

Market LAR −2.5 over DEN. The market’s own numbers make this line 1.7 points too kind to LAR. Results add 0.3 toward LAR. Our number DEN +1.1, an edge of +1.4 before the signals.

  • Ratings · DEN +1.4
  • Public · DEN +1.0
  • The market's own numbers make this line 1.7 points too kind to LAR; results add 0.3 toward LAR.
  • 73% of the spread money is on LAR. That is a point to DEN.
Line history4 pulls

DEN: opened +2.25 · taken at +2.5 · now +2.5

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

Start/sit, week 3

Los Angeles Rams

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Matthew Stafford17.3Bench

Matthew Caldwell0.0Out

Stetson Bennett0.0Avoid

Ty Simpson0.0Avoid

RB
Kyren Williams14.8Must start

Blake Corum8.8Start

Dean Connors0.0Avoid

Jordan Waters0.0Avoid

Ronnie Rivers0.0Out

WR
Puka Nacua14.3Must start

Davante Adams11.5Start

Jordan Whittington1.2Avoid

Konata Mumpfield1.2Avoid

Xavier Smith1.0Avoid

Tutu Atwell0.7Avoid

Alex Bachman0.0Avoid

Brennan Presley0.0Avoid

CJ Daniels0.0Avoid

TE
Colby Parkinson5.4Bench

Terrance Ferguson3.9Bench

Tyler Higbee2.0Avoid

Max Klare1.2Avoid

Davis Allen0.9Avoid

Dan Villari0.0Avoid

K
Harrison Mevis8.2Flex

Denver Broncos

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Bo Nix17.8Flex

Jarrett Stidham0.0Avoid

Sam Ehlinger0.0Avoid

RB
RJ Harvey6.5Flex

Jonah Coleman6.1Flex

J.K. Dobbins5.2Flex

Tyler Badie1.8Bench

Adrian Killins0.0Avoid

Cody Schrader0.0Avoid

WR
Jaylen Waddle13.2Start

Courtland Sutton10.1Start

Pat Bryant7.4Flex

Marvin Mims1.9Bench

Lil'Jordan Humphrey1.6Bench

Troy Franklin1.5Bench

Dane Key0.0Avoid

Kolbe Katsis0.0Avoid

Michael Bandy0.0Avoid

Nick Williams0.0Avoid

TE
Evan Engram5.9Flex

Adam Trautman2.1Avoid

Nate Adkins1.8Avoid

Dallen Bentley0.3Avoid

Caleb Lohner0.0Out

Lucas Krull0.0Avoid

K
Wil Lutz7.7Bench

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.