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Sharp Six

DET at BUF

Week 2 · Final

Away

DET

Detroit Lions

31

Home

BUF

Buffalo Bills

41

The line it closed on

Spread

BUF −5.5

Total 54.5

Implied points

DET
24.5
BUF
30.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 3 mph, 0% chance of rain, 67°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on BUF. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

DET at BUF

Thu, Sep 17, 8:15 PM ET★★☆☆☆

DET +5.5

Wrong · −4.5

Market BUF −5.5 over DET. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.6 toward DET. Our number DET +3.9, an edge of +1.6 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · DET +1.6· wrong
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.6 toward DET.

Final: DET 31 at BUF 41

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Detroit Lions

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Jared Goff19.0Flex

Joshua Dobbs0.0Avoid

Luke Altmyer0.0Avoid

RB
Jahmyr Gibbs28.3Must start

Sione Vaki3.8Bench

Jacob Saylors1.0Bench

Isiah Pacheco0.0Out

Jabari Small0.0Avoid

Michael Warren0.0Avoid

WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown17.5Must start

Jameson Williams12.6Start

Isaac TeSlaa4.0Bench

Tay Martin0.7Avoid

Tom Kennedy0.5Avoid

Dominic Lovett0.0Avoid

Kendrick Law0.0Out

Lucky Jackson0.0Avoid

TE
Sam LaPorta13.4Must start

Brock Wright2.8Avoid

Tyler Conklin0.4Avoid

Jackson Meeks0.0Avoid

Thomas Gordon0.0Avoid

K
Jake Bates6.1Bench

Buffalo Bills

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Josh Allen28.2Must start

Kyle Allen0.0Avoid

Shane Buechele0.0Avoid

RB
James Cook20.8Must start

Ray Davis4.6Flex

Ty Johnson0.0Out

WR
Khalil Shakir12.5Start

Keon Coleman3.5Bench

Joshua Palmer2.5Bench

DJ Moore0.0Out

Greg Dortch0.0Avoid

Ja'Mori Maclin0.0Avoid

Skyler Bell0.0Out

Stephen Gosnell0.0Avoid

Trent Sherfield0.0Avoid

Tyrell Shavers0.0Out

TE
Dalton Kincaid16.6Must start

Dawson Knox5.8Flex

Jackson Hawes2.4Avoid

Keleki Latu0.0Avoid

K
Tyler Bass7.0Start

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.