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Sharp Six

KC at MIA

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Away

KC

Kansas City Chiefs

Home

MIA

Miami Dolphins

The wire

Spread

KC −10.5

Total 45.5

Implied points

KC
28.0
MIA
17.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 9 mph, 2% chance of rain, 87°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

MIA: opened +11.5 · now +11 across 4 pulls

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on MIA. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

KC at MIA

Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

MIA +11.5

Market KC −11.5 over MIA. The market’s own numbers make this line 1.2 points too kind to MIA. Results add 1.6 toward MIA. Our number MIA +11.1, an edge of +0.4 before the signals. Line now MIA +10.5.

  • Ratings · MIA +0.4
  • Public · MIA +1.0
  • The market's own numbers make this line 1.2 points too kind to MIA; results add 1.6 toward MIA.
  • 94% of the spread money is on KC. That is a point to MIA.
Line history4 pulls

MIA: opened +11.5 · taken at +11.5 · now +11

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

Start/sit, week 3

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Patrick Mahomes27.8Must start

Garrett Nussmeier0.0Avoid

Justin Fields0.0Avoid

RB
Kenneth Walker23.6Must start

Emmett Johnson5.5Flex

Brashard Smith0.8Bench

Ben VanSumeren0.0Avoid

Elijah McGuire0.0Avoid

Jaydn Ott0.0Avoid

Nate Carter0.0Avoid

WR
Rashee Rice12.2Start

Xavier Worthy10.3Start

Tyquan Thornton6.8Flex

Jalen Royals1.9Bench

Cyrus Allen0.7Avoid

Nikko Remigio0.2Avoid

Andrew Armstrong0.0Avoid

Jeff Caldwell0.0Out

Jimmy Holiday0.0Out

Omari Evans0.0Avoid

TE
Travis Kelce15.2Must start

Noah Gray4.5Bench

Jake Briningstool1.1Avoid

Jared Wiley0.0Avoid

John Michael Gyllenborg0.0Out

Thomas Odukoya0.0Avoid

K
Harrison Butker9.0Must start

Miami Dolphins

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Malik Willis17.3Bench

Brady Cook0.0Avoid

Kyle McCord0.0Avoid

RB
De'Von Achane16.4Must start

Ollie Gordon2.1Bench

Jaylen Wright1.3Bench

Carlos Washington0.0Avoid

Jarquez Hunter0.0Avoid

Jordan Scarlett0.0Avoid

WR
Malik Washington9.1Flex

Caleb Douglas4.1Bench

Chris Bell3.0Bench

Kevin Coleman2.4Bench

Jalen Tolbert1.6Bench

AJ Henning0.0Avoid

Allen Hurns0.0Avoid

Jalen Reagor0.0Avoid

Ryan Miller0.0Avoid

Will Sheppard0.0Avoid

TE
Greg Dulcich7.0Flex

Will Kacmarek3.7Bench

Justin Joly0.6Avoid

Seydou Traore0.6Avoid

Cole Turner0.0Out

Kalif Jackson0.0Avoid

Tre Watson0.0Avoid

K
Riley Patterson6.6Avoid

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.