Murphy’s law
Main Event ONLINE - 6hr Slow #114078 · league 114078 · slot 4 · Dan Garstecki
Playoffs: 53% (up 14 since Week 7)
As of Week 8. The Sharp Model plays out the rest of the season 10,000 times from each roster’s projections, this league’s fixed schedule and FFPC’s seeding rules. Expected prize money is the average across those seasons, not a forecast of what a team will win. There is no backtest yet: this is the first season we have run it.
Roster
best lineup projects 2093.3 pts| Player | Rd | Pos | NFL | Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WR | LAR | 313.5 | |
| 2 | RB | KC | 245.0 | |
| 3 | WR | NYG | 236.7 | |
| 4 | RB | NYG | 202.2 | |
| 5 | RB | JAX | 175.8 | |
| 6 | QB | NE | 362.3 | |
| 7 | WR | IND | 177.9 | |
| 8 | RB | DEN | 160.2 | |
| 9 | TE | PHI | 162.5 | |
| 10 | WR | NE | 161.2 | |
| 11 | WR | PIT | 170.9 | |
| 12 | TE | HOU | 182.9 | |
| 13 | RB | HOU | 84.8 | |
| 14 | QB | DET | 327.5 | |
| 15 | RB | LV | 97.5 | |
| 16 | RB | ATL | 69.9 | |
| 17 | WR | LV | 130.6 | |
| 18 | RB | ARI | 58.2 | |
DET Team Defense | 19 | DEF | DET | 92.0 |
| 20 | K | DET | 105.0 |
Weekly results
| Week | Points | League rank | Left on bench |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 143.0 | 6 | 10.6 |
| 2 | 77.4 | 12 | 67.7 |
| 3 | 103.3 | 12 | 18.4 |
| 4 | 185.8 | 1 | 21.1 |
| 5 | 171.2 | 2 | 24.8 |
| 6 | 161.8 | 2 | 14.7 |
| 7 | 120.3 | 6 | 37.8 |
| 8 | 146.1 | 3 | 34.1 |
“Left on bench” compares what was started against the best lineup from the drafted roster. Phase 1 does not track waivers or trades, so a week with roster moves can read high.
Schedule
| Wk | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ WhoIsJohnGalt14 | 143.00–115.20 | W |
| 2 | vs Studmuffin D” | 77.40–147.50 | L |
| 3 | @ Cawleeds Return | 103.35–151.20 | L |
| 4 | vs WeST INK May | 185.85–175.70 | W |
| 5 | @ Fantasy Sopranos-4 | 171.20–145.45 | W |
| 6 | All-play week | 161.75 | W |
| 7 | vs Big Brothers | 120.25–130.75 | L |
| 8 | vs Dreaming of Sundays | 146.05–145.00 | W |
| 9 | vs Hammerheads 3 | – | Upcoming |
| 10 | vs Make Fantasy Great Again | – | Upcoming |
| 11 | vs Seven Mile | – | Upcoming |
| 12 | vs Out of Position | – | Upcoming |
League
Full league →| SeedTeam | W–L | Playoffs | PF | PA | GB | Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · paidStudmuffin D” | 6–2 | 77% | 1171.45 | 846.35 | – | W5 |
| 2 · paidWeST INK May | 5–3 | 95% | 1170.80 | 924.15 | 1 | W3 |
| 3Dreaming of Sundays | 5–3 | 67% | 1149.00 | 1003.35 | 1 | L2 |
| 4Big Brothers | 5–3 | 51% | 1123.20 | 957.80 | 1 | L1 |
| 5Murphy’s law (this team) | 5–3 | 53% | 1108.85 | 1010.80 | 1 | W1 |
| 6Cawleeds Return | 5–3 | 11% | 1066.90 | 831.25 | 1 | W1 |
| 7Out of Position | 4–4 | 27% | 1099.80 | 925.85 | 2 | W2 |
| 8Make Fantasy Great Again | 3–5 | 13% | 1080.85 | 965.60 | 3 | L1 |
| 9Fantasy Sopranos-4 | 3–5 | 1% | 1019.95 | 966.65 | 3 | L2 |
| 10Seven Mile | 3–5 | <1% | 973.65 | 945.25 | 3 | L1 |
| 11WhoIsJohnGalt14 | 2–6 | 5% | 1025.70 | 989.55 | 4 | W1 |
| 12Hammerheads 3 | 2–6 | 0% | 927.85 | 1007.45 | 4 | L3 |
Seeds follow the Main Event: 1-seed the best record, 2-seed the most points among the rest, then the next best record and the next most points. Seeds 1 and 2 are paid and go to the Championship Round. In the week 6 all-play, the top six scores win and every team tied with the sixth-best score takes a win. Records are ordered by win percentage, a tie counting half a win, and a tie on that goes to points for here; FFPC’s own tiebreak decides the real seed.
Core overlap
0 teams in the field share at least 7 of your first nine picks (0 share 8, 0 share 9), out of 4,499 other teams.