JAX at DEN, Week 2: line, weather, start/sit and props

The line it closed on

Every book on the game lines

Spread

DEN −2.5

Total 45.5

Implied points

JAX: 21.5
DEN: 24.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 7 mph, 1% chance of rain, 74°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on DEN. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

On the picks page

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

JAX at DEN

Sun, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

JAX +2.5

Wrong · −4.5

Market DEN −2.5 over JAX. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 2.0 toward JAX. Our number JAX +0.5, an edge of +2.0 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

Ratings · JAX +2.0· wrong
Public · DEN +1.0· right

Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 2 toward JAX.
81% of the spread money is on JAX. That is a point to DEN.

Final: JAX 13 at DEN 20

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

FFPC scoring. Other scoring on the weekly rankings

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Trevor Lawrence	19.7	Flex
Joey Aguilar	0.0	Avoid
Nick Mullens	0.0	Avoid
Quinn Ewers	0.0	Out
RB
Bhayshul Tuten	9.9	Start
Chris Rodriguez	7.1	Flex
LeQuint Allen	2.4	Bench
Ameer Abdullah	0.3	Bench
J'Mari Taylor	0.0	Avoid
WR
Parker Washington	12.1	Start
Brian Thomas	7.7	Flex
Jakobi Meyers	6.8	Flex
Josh Cameron	1.4	Bench
Austin Trammell	0.0	Avoid
CJ Williams	0.0	Out
Michael Wortham	0.0	Avoid
Tim Jones	0.0	Avoid
Trebor Pena	0.0	Avoid
TE
Brenton Strange	9.6	Flex
Nate Boerkircher	1.6	Avoid
Quintin Morris	0.5	Avoid
Brenden Bates	0.0	Avoid
Tanner Koziol	0.0	Out
K
Cam Little	6.2	Bench

Denver Broncos

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Bo Nix	18.1	Flex
Jarrett Stidham	0.0	Avoid
Sam Ehlinger	0.0	Out
RB
J.K. Dobbins	10.7	Start
Jonah Coleman	6.6	Flex
Tyler Badie	1.3	Bench
Adrian Killins	0.0	Avoid
Cody Schrader	0.0	Avoid
RJ Harvey	0.0	Out
WR
Jaylen Waddle	12.7	Start
Courtland Sutton	10.7	Start
Pat Bryant	7.7	Flex
Troy Franklin	2.3	Bench
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	1.5	Bench
Dane Key	0.0	Avoid
Kolbe Katsis	0.0	Avoid
Marvin Mims	0.0	Out
Michael Bandy	0.0	Avoid
Nick Williams	0.0	Avoid
TE
Evan Engram	5.0	Bench
Adam Trautman	2.0	Avoid
Nate Adkins	0.4	Avoid
Caleb Lohner	0.0	Out
Dallen Bentley	0.0	Out
Lucas Krull	0.0	Avoid
K
Wil Lutz	6.4	Flex

Player props

This game on the props board

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.

Takes

All the news

Sep 26CBS Sports NFL
NFL Week 3 picks, best bets: Broncos upset Rams, Bills rout Chargers
Sep 25RotoWire NFL
Puka Nacua: Doubtful to play in Week 3Hold
Puka Nacua (hip) is inactive for Monday's game against the Giants, per Adam Schefter as relayed by RotoWire. He had been listed as questionable.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Browns list CB Tyson Campbell, S Grant Delpit as questionable for Week 3No action
ProFootballTalk reports the Browns listed cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Grant Delpit as questionable for Week 3 against Carolina. Both are defensive starters for Cleveland's home opener.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Dre'Mont Jones out, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon questionable for Week 3Hold
ProFootballTalk reports the Patriots will be without Dre'Mont Jones in Week 3, with safety Craig Woodson and tight end Eli Raridon listed as questionable. New England travels to Jacksonville as 3.0-point underdogs in a 45.5-point total.
Sep 25The Athletic NFL
Rams' Puka Nacua doubtful for game vs. Broncos, per coach Sean McVayHold
Sean McVay listed Puka Nacua as doubtful for the Rams' game at Denver, per The Athletic. Nacua is rostered in every Main Event league and carries a 313.5-point season projection.
Sep 25A to Z Sports
Vikings Final Injury Report: Aaron Jones' status revealed, while two key Buccaneers defenders are set to miss the game - A to Z SportsHold
A to Z Sports reports Aaron Jones' status is settled on the Vikings' final injury report ahead of their game at Tampa Bay, while two Buccaneers defenders are ruled out. The excerpt does not specify Jones' actual designation.