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Sharp Six

BAL at DAL

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET

Away

BAL

Baltimore Ravens

Home

DAL

Dallas Cowboys

The wire

Spread

BAL −3.5

Total 53.5

Implied points

BAL
28.5
DAL
25.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 6 mph, 10% chance of rain, 98°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

DAL: opened +3 · now +3.5 across 4 pulls

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on DAL. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

BAL at DAL

Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET★★☆☆☆

DAL +3.5

Market BAL −3.5 over DAL. The market’s own numbers make this line 1.5 points too kind to BAL. Results add 0.8 toward DAL. Our number DAL +1.2, an edge of +2.3 before the signals.

  • Ratings · DAL +2.3
  • Public · DAL +1.0
  • The market's own numbers make this line 1.5 points too kind to BAL; results add 0.8 toward DAL.
  • 77% of the spread money is on BAL. That is a point to DAL.
Line history4 pulls

DAL: opened +3 · taken at +3.5 · now +3.5

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

Start/sit, week 3

Baltimore Ravens

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Lamar Jackson30.9Must start

Aaron Bailey0.0Avoid

Joe Fagnano0.0Avoid

Skylar Thompson0.0Out

Tyler Huntley0.0Avoid

Zach Terrell0.0Avoid

RB
Derrick Henry20.9Must start

Justice Hill7.9Flex

Rasheen Ali0.3Avoid

Adam Randall0.0Out

Jonathan Ward0.0Avoid

WR
Zay Flowers17.4Must start

Rashod Bateman11.8Start

Devontez Walker3.0Bench

LaJohntay Wester2.6Bench

Chris Moore2.3Bench

Elijah Sarratt0.2Avoid

Gage Larvadain0.0Avoid

Ja'Kobi Lane0.0Out

Shedrick Jackson0.0Avoid

Xavier Guillory0.0Avoid

TE
Mark Andrews14.7Must start

Durham Smythe3.4Bench

Matt Hibner2.6Avoid

Josh Cuevas1.3Avoid

Barrett Burns0.0Avoid

Nick Vannett0.0Avoid

Ty Pezza0.0Avoid

K
Tyler Loop8.9Start

Dallas Cowboys

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Dak Prescott21.5Start

Joe Milton0.0Avoid

Sam Howell0.0Avoid

RB
Javonte Williams15.6Must start

Emari Demercado3.9Bench

Tyler Goodson0.7Avoid

Israel Abanikanda0.0Avoid

Ito Smith0.0Avoid

Malik Davis0.0Out

WR
CeeDee Lamb17.5Must start

George Pickens15.0Must start

Ryan Flournoy7.8Flex

KaVontae Turpin2.9Bench

Jonathan Mingo0.5Avoid

Anthony Smith0.0Avoid

Camden Brown0.0Avoid

Jordan Hudson0.0Avoid

TE
Jake Ferguson11.2Start

Luke Schoonmaker2.0Avoid

Brevyn Spann-Ford1.5Avoid

DJ Rogers0.0Out

James Mitchell0.0Avoid

Michael Trigg0.0Avoid

Princeton Fant0.0Out

K
Brandon Aubrey9.0Must start

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.