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Sharp Six

IND at KC

Week 2 · Final

Away

IND

Indianapolis Colts

30

Home

KC

Kansas City Chiefs

33

The line it closed on

Spread

KC −6

Total 46.5

Implied points

IND
20.3
KC
26.3

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 9 mph, 3% chance of rain, 73°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on KC. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

IND at KC

Sun, Sep 20, 8:20 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

KC −6

Wrong · −3.0

Market KC −6 over IND. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.2 toward KC. Our number KC −7.2, an edge of +1.2 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · KC +1.2· wrong
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.2 toward KC.

Final: IND 30 at KC 33

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Indianapolis Colts

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Daniel Jones15.7Bench

Anthony Richardson0.0Avoid

Jalen Morton0.0Avoid

Riley Leonard0.0Out

RB
Jonathan Taylor17.4Must start

Seth McGowan2.2Bench

Davon Booth0.0Avoid

DJ Giddens0.0Out

WR
Josh Downs9.6Start

Keenan Allen7.2Flex

Laquon Treadwell0.7Avoid

Anthony Gould0.4Avoid

Deion Burks0.3Avoid

Al Riles0.0Avoid

Alec Pierce0.0Out

Ashton Dulin0.0Out

D.J. Montgomery0.0Out

Darius Slayton0.0Avoid

Eli Pancol0.0Avoid

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0.0Avoid

TE
Tyler Warren13.6Must start

Mo Alie-Cox1.3Avoid

Drew Ogletree0.8Avoid

Carson Towt0.0Out

Jack Doyle0.0Avoid

Kenny Fletcher0.0Avoid

Pharaoh Brown0.0Avoid

Will Mallory0.0Out

K
Spencer Shrader6.6Flex

Kansas City Chiefs

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Patrick Mahomes21.9Start

Garrett Nussmeier0.0Out

Justin Fields0.0Avoid

RB
Kenneth Walker18.5Must start

Emmett Johnson3.6Bench

Brashard Smith0.5Bench

Ben VanSumeren0.0Avoid

Elijah McGuire0.0Avoid

Jaydn Ott0.0Avoid

Nate Carter0.0Avoid

WR
Rashee Rice15.1Must start

Xavier Worthy10.6Start

Tyquan Thornton7.0Flex

Cyrus Allen0.9Bench

Jalen Royals0.3Avoid

Nikko Remigio0.1Avoid

Andrew Armstrong0.0Avoid

Jeff Caldwell0.0Out

Jimmy Holiday0.0Out

Omari Evans0.0Avoid

TE
Travis Kelce12.8Start

Noah Gray5.1Bench

Jake Briningstool0.3Avoid

Jared Wiley0.0Out

John Michael Gyllenborg0.0Out

Thomas Odukoya0.0Avoid

K
Harrison Butker6.2Bench

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.