NO at BAL, Week 2: line, weather, start/sit and props

The line it closed on

Every book on the game lines

Spread

BAL −8.5

Total 45.5

Implied points

NO: 18.5
BAL: 27.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 8 mph, 13% chance of rain, 79°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on BAL. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

On the picks page

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

NO at BAL

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★★☆☆☆

NO +8.5

Right · +15.5

Market BAL −8.5 over NO. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.0 toward NO. Our number NO +7.5, an edge of +1.0 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

Ratings · NO +1.0· right
Public · NO +1.0· right

Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1 toward NO.
86% of the spread money is on BAL. That is a point to NO.

Final: NO 24 at BAL 17

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

FFPC scoring. Other scoring on the weekly rankings

New Orleans Saints

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Tyler Shough	17.1	Bench
Blake Bortles	0.0	Avoid
Spencer Rattler	0.0	Avoid
Zach Wilson	0.0	Out
RB
Travis Etienne	11.8	Start
Alvin Kamara	5.3	Flex
CJ Donaldson	0.9	Bench
Kendre Miller	0.0	Out
Ty Chandler	0.0	Out
Zamir White	0.0	Avoid
WR
Chris Olave	16.1	Must start
Devaughn Vele	9.9	Start
Bryce Lance	2.9	Bench
Barion Brown	2.1	Bench
Kevin Austin	0.8	Bench
Cedric Tillman	0.0	Avoid
Eldridge Massington	0.0	Avoid
Jalen Moreno-Cropper	0.0	Avoid
Jordyn Tyson	0.0	Out
Kyrese Rowan	0.0	Avoid
Mason Tipton	0.0	Out
Trey Palmer	0.0	Avoid
TE
Juwan Johnson	11.1	Start
Noah Fant	5.8	Flex
Oscar Delp	1.4	Avoid
Moliki Matavao	0.0	Out
Stone Smartt	0.0	Avoid
Treyton Welch	0.0	Avoid
K
Daniel Carlson	5.8	Avoid
Charlie Smyth	0.0	Avoid

Baltimore Ravens

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Lamar Jackson	24.0	Must start
Aaron Bailey	0.0	Avoid
Joe Fagnano	0.0	Out
Skylar Thompson	0.0	Out
Tyler Huntley	0.0	Avoid
Zach Terrell	0.0	Avoid
RB
Derrick Henry	17.5	Must start
Justice Hill	7.0	Flex
Rasheen Ali	0.2	Bench
Adam Randall	0.0	Out
Jonathan Ward	0.0	Avoid
WR
Rashod Bateman	9.7	Start
Devontez Walker	5.1	Bench
Chris Moore	4.8	Bench
LaJohntay Wester	2.3	Bench
Elijah Sarratt	1.9	Bench
Gage Larvadain	0.0	Avoid
Ja'Kobi Lane	0.0	Out
Shedrick Jackson	0.0	Avoid
Xavier Guillory	0.0	Avoid
Zay Flowers	0.0	Out
TE
Mark Andrews	13.1	Start
Durham Smythe	3.2	Avoid
Matt Hibner	2.9	Avoid
Josh Cuevas	1.1	Avoid
Barrett Burns	0.0	Avoid
Nick Vannett	0.0	Avoid
Ty Pezza	0.0	Avoid
K
Tyler Loop	7.1	Start

Player props

This game on the props board

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.

Takes

All the news

Sep 25RotoWire NFL
Puka Nacua: Doubtful to play in Week 3Hold
Puka Nacua (hip) is inactive for Monday's game against the Giants, per Adam Schefter as relayed by RotoWire. He had been listed as questionable.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Browns list CB Tyson Campbell, S Grant Delpit as questionable for Week 3No action
ProFootballTalk reports the Browns listed cornerback Tyson Campbell and safety Grant Delpit as questionable for Week 3 against Carolina. Both are defensive starters for Cleveland's home opener.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Brock Bowers questionable to face SaintsHold
ProFootballTalk reports Brock Bowers is questionable for Sunday at New Orleans and could make his 2026 debut. He is rostered in every league that counts.
Sep 25RotoWire NFL
Travis Etienne: Will play SundayHold
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said Travis Etienne was limited in Wednesday's practice with a hamstring injury, per Jeff Nowak of WWL New Orleans, as relayed by RotoWire. Etienne is projected for 208.7 points and rostered in every Main Event league.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
WR Zay Flowers questionable, OT Ronnie Stanley out for RavensStart
ProFootballTalk reports Zay Flowers returned to Friday's practice as a limited participant and is questionable, while tackle Ronnie Stanley is ruled out.
Sep 25The Athletic NFL
Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is questionable to play vs. SaintsStart
The Athletic reports Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is questionable for Sunday's game at New Orleans. No further detail was provided.