PHI at CHI
Mon, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET★★★☆☆CHI +4.5
Market PHI −4.5 over CHI. The market’s own numbers make this line 5.6 points too kind to PHI. Results add 0.9 toward CHI. Our number CHI −2, an edge of +6.5 before the signals.
- Ratings · CHI +6.5
- Public · CHI +1.0
- Quarterback · PHI +4.0
- The market's own numbers make this line 5.6 points too kind to PHI; results move the number 0.9 toward CHI, from CHI giving 1.1 to PHI to CHI giving 2 to PHI.
- 78% of the spread money is on PHI. That is a point to CHI.
- CHI's top quarterback, Caleb Williams, is listed Doubtful.
PHI giving 4.5 to CHI, and the desk takes CHI. The market's own numbers make this line 5.6 points too kind to PHI, results move the number 0.9 toward CHI from CHI giving 1.1 to PHI to CHI giving 2 to PHI, and that puts our number 6.5 points off the actual line. Add in 78% of the spread money sitting on PHI, a point to CHI by itself, and the gap is doing real work even before you account for Williams listed Doubtful, which pulls 4 points back the other way and is the whole reason this sits at 3 stars instead of higher. Take CHI here; the quarterback signal is noted, not ignored, and it still isn't enough to close a 6.5-point hole.
From the Sharp Model, off the numbers on this card and nothing else.
Line history4 pulls
CHI: opened +3.5 · taken at +4.5 · now +4.5
The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.