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Sharp Six

GB at NYJ

Week 2 · Final

Away

GB

Green Bay Packers

20

Home

NYJ

New York Jets

17

The line it closed on

Spread

GB −3.5

Total 44.5

Implied points

GB
24.0
NYJ
20.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 9 mph, 65% chance of rain, 68°F at kickoff: over the start/sit threshold (60%), so the calls below are already marked down for it.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on NYJ. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

GB at NYJ

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★★☆☆☆

NYJ +3.5

Right · +0.5

Market GB −3.5 over NYJ. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 2.0 toward NYJ. Our number NYJ +1.5, an edge of +2.0 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · NYJ +2.0· right
  • Weather · NYJ +1.0· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 2 toward NYJ.
  • A 65% chance of rain outdoors is a point to the underdog, NYJ.

Final: GB 20 at NYJ 17

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Green Bay Packers

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Jordan Love21.5Start

Kedon Slovis0.0Avoid

Tyrod Taylor0.0Avoid

RB
MarShawn Lloyd10.5Start

Chris Brooks7.2Flex

Kaleb Johnson1.6Bench

Damon Bankston0.0Avoid

Josh Jacobs0.0Avoid

Kerrith Whyte0.0Avoid

Pierre Strong0.0Avoid

WR
Christian Watson14.4Must start

Matthew Golden11.5Start

Skyy Moore1.1Bench

Bo Melton0.4Avoid

DeAndre Thompkins0.0Avoid

Isaiah Neyor0.0Avoid

J. Michael Sturdivant0.0Avoid

Jayden Reed0.0Out

Quincy Skinner0.0Avoid

Savion Williams0.0Out

TE
Tucker Kraft13.4Must start

Jonnu Smith5.1Bench

Josh Whyle0.5Avoid

Bronson Kaufusi0.0Avoid

Drake Dabney0.0Avoid

Isaac Nauta0.0Avoid

Luke Musgrave0.0Out

Mark Redman0.0Avoid

Thomas Yassmin0.0Out

K
Trey Smack6.9Start

Lenny Krieg0.0Avoid

New York Jets

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Geno Smith16.7Bench

Cade Klubnik0.0Avoid

Will Levis0.0Avoid

RB
Breece Hall14.1Must start

Braelon Allen5.4Flex

Isaiah Davis1.9Bench

Al-Jay Henderson0.0Avoid

Andrew Beck0.0Avoid

DeaMonte Trayanum0.0Avoid

Kene Nwangwu0.0Out

WR
Garrett Wilson14.7Must start

Adonai Mitchell7.5Flex

Isaiah Williams3.1Bench

Arian Smith0.3Avoid

Jamaal Pritchett0.0Avoid

Malik McClain0.0Avoid

Omar Cooper0.0Out

Sterling Shepard0.0Avoid

Tim Patrick0.0Out

Tyler Johnson0.0Avoid

TE
Kenyon Sadiq6.7Flex

Mason Taylor5.2Bench

Jeremy Ruckert1.2Avoid

Jelani Woods0.4Avoid

Cody Hardy0.0Avoid

Joshua Perkins0.0Avoid

K
Jason Sanders5.5Avoid

Blake Grupe0.0Out

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.