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Sharp Six

PIT at NE

Week 2 · Final

Away

PIT

Pittsburgh Steelers

3

Home

NE

New England Patriots

20

The line it closed on

Spread

NE −4.5

Total 41.5

Implied points

PIT
18.5
NE
23.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 2 mph, 52% chance of rain, 58°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on NE. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

PIT at NE

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

NE −4.5

Right · +12.5

Market NE −4.5 over PIT. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.2 toward PIT. Our number NE −3.3, an edge of −1.2 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · PIT +1.2· wrong
  • Rest · NE +1.5· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.2 toward PIT.
  • NE come in on 11 days' rest to PIT's 7.

Final: PIT 3 at NE 20

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Aaron Rodgers17.1Bench

Ben Roethlisberger0.0Avoid

Drew Allar0.0Out

Mason Rudolph0.0Avoid

Nick Schuessler0.0Avoid

Will Howard0.0Out

RB
Jaylen Warren10.7Start

Travis Homer0.5Bench

Eli Heidenreich0.2Avoid

Lew Nichols0.0Avoid

Rico Dowdle0.0Out

WR
DK Metcalf13.9Must start

Roman Wilson8.4Flex

Germie Bernard6.3Bench

Ben Skowronek1.4Bench

Kaden Wetjen0.7Avoid

Brandon Johnson0.0Avoid

Brandon Smith0.0Avoid

Isaiah Hodgins0.0Avoid

Michael Pittman0.0Out

TE
Pat Freiermuth9.8Flex

Darnell Washington4.1Bench

Riley Nowakowski0.3Avoid

Robert Tonyan0.1Avoid

Dax Raymond0.0Avoid

Eric Ebron0.0Avoid

Lake McRee0.0Avoid

K
Chris Boswell5.5Avoid

New England Patriots

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Drake Maye19.9Flex

Behren Morton0.0Out

Tommy DeVito0.0Avoid

RB
Rhamondre Stevenson12.3Start

TreVeyon Henderson9.6Start

Corey Kiner0.6Bench

Reggie Gilliam0.3Bench

Lan Larison0.0Avoid

Myles Montgomery0.0Out

WR
Romeo Doubs8.4Flex

Mack Hollins8.1Flex

DeMario Douglas7.5Flex

Kyle Williams2.9Bench

Efton Chism1.1Bench

A.J. Brown0.0Out

Cameron Dorner0.0Avoid

Chandler Brayboy0.0Avoid

Jeremiah Webb0.0Out

Kyle Dixon0.0Avoid

TE
Hunter Henry11.2Start

Eli Raridon4.0Bench

Cameron Latu0.3Avoid

Julian Hill0.0Out

Matt LaCosse0.0Avoid

Tanner Arkin0.0Out

Tanner Conner0.0Avoid

K
Andy Borregales6.2Bench

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.