NE at JAX, Week 3: line, weather, start/sit and props

The line

Every book on the game lines

Spread

JAX −3

Total 45.5

Implied points

NE: 21.3
JAX: 24.3

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 4 mph, 0% chance of rain, 84°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

JAX: opened −3 · now −3 across 4 pulls

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on JAX. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

On the picks page

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

NE at JAX

Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET★★☆☆☆

NE +3

Market JAX −3 over NE. The market’s own numbers make this line 3.4 points too kind to JAX. Results add 0.1 toward NE. Our number NE −0.5, an edge of +3.5 before the signals.

Ratings · NE +3.5

The market's own numbers make this line 3.4 points too kind to JAX; results add 0.1 toward NE.

Line history4 pulls

NE: opened +3 · taken at +3 · now +3

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on our side. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

Start/sit, week 3

FFPC scoring. Other scoring on the weekly rankings

New England Patriots

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Drake Maye	20.7	Start
Behren Morton	0.0	Avoid
Tommy DeVito	0.0	Avoid
RB
TreVeyon Henderson	11.8	Start
Rhamondre Stevenson	9.8	Start
Corey Kiner	0.5	Avoid
Reggie Gilliam	0.3	Avoid
Lan Larison	0.0	Avoid
Myles Montgomery	0.0	Out
WR
Romeo Doubs	9.4	Start
Mack Hollins	8.5	Flex
DeMario Douglas	7.4	Flex
Kyle Williams	3.2	Bench
Efton Chism	1.2	Avoid
A.J. Brown	0.0	Out
Cameron Dorner	0.0	Avoid
Chandler Brayboy	0.0	Avoid
Jeremiah Webb	0.0	Out
Kyle Dixon	0.0	Avoid
TE
Hunter Henry	12.5	Start
Eli Raridon	2.0	Avoid
Cameron Latu	0.3	Avoid
Julian Hill	0.0	Out
Matt LaCosse	0.0	Avoid
Tanner Arkin	0.0	Avoid
Tanner Conner	0.0	Avoid
K
Andy Borregales	7.4	Bench

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Trevor Lawrence	19.9	Start
Joey Aguilar	0.0	Avoid
Nick Mullens	0.0	Avoid
Quinn Ewers	0.0	Avoid
RB
Bhayshul Tuten	10.4	Start
Chris Rodriguez	4.4	Flex
Ameer Abdullah	2.6	Bench
LeQuint Allen	1.6	Bench
J'Mari Taylor	0.0	Avoid
WR
Parker Washington	15.1	Must start
Brian Thomas	8.9	Flex
Jakobi Meyers	7.5	Flex
Josh Cameron	2.3	Bench
Austin Trammell	0.0	Avoid
CJ Williams	0.0	Avoid
Michael Wortham	0.0	Avoid
Tim Jones	0.0	Avoid
Trebor Pena	0.0	Avoid
TE
Brenton Strange	10.0	Flex
Nate Boerkircher	1.7	Avoid
Tanner Koziol	1.4	Avoid
Quintin Morris	0.6	Avoid
Brenden Bates	0.0	Avoid
K
Cam Little	8.4	Flex

Player props

This game on the props board

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.

Takes

All the news

Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Dre'Mont Jones out, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon questionable for Week 3Hold
ProFootballTalk reports the Patriots will be without Dre'Mont Jones in Week 3, with safety Craig Woodson and tight end Eli Raridon listed as questionable. New England travels to Jacksonville as 3.0-point underdogs in a 45.5-point total.
Sep 25Musket Fire
Patriots finally receive a good update on AJ Brown as injuries keep piling up - Musket FireHold
Musket Fire reports a positive update on A.J. Brown, whose team situation is a mess of injuries, though he remains on IR.
Sep 25PrizePicks
NFL Week 3 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em WRs: Parker Washington vs. DJ Moore - PrizePicksStart
PrizePicks runs a start/sit column pitting Parker Washington against DJ Moore for Week 3 lineup decisions.
Sep 25FanSided
Gronk has Drake Maye thoughts from afar during Patriots' slow start - FanSidedNo action
Gronkowski offered opinions on Drake Maye's slow start amid the Patriots' rough opening to the season, per FanSided.
Sep 25Yahoo Sports
Patriots' Drake Maye Reveals What He Must Change Amid Slow Start - Yahoo SportsBench
Yahoo Sports reports Drake Maye addressed what he needs to fix after a slow start to the season. Maye has posted 14.6 and 11.1 FFPC points in his first two weeks.
Sep 25RotoBaller
Who Should I Start for Fantasy Football Week 3? Josh Downs, Bhayshul Tuten, DK Metcalf, Ladd McConkey, Stefon Diggs, Quentin Johnston, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Rome Odunze - RotoBaller