MIN at CHI, Week 2: line, weather, start/sit and props

The line it closed on

Every book on the game lines

Spread

CHI −4.5

Total 46.5

Implied points

MIN: 21.0
CHI: 25.5

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 13 mph, 59% chance of rain, 66°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on CHI. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

On the picks page

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

MIN at CHI

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★☆☆☆☆

MIN +4.5

Right · +10.5

Market CHI −4.5 over MIN. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.0 toward MIN. Our number MIN +3.5, an edge of +1.0 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

Ratings · MIN +1.0· right

Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1 toward MIN.

Final: MIN 9 at CHI 3

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

FFPC scoring. Other scoring on the weekly rankings

Minnesota Vikings

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Carson Wentz	20.0	Flex
J.J. McCarthy	0.0	Avoid
Kyler Murray	0.0	Out
Max Brosmer	0.0	Avoid
RB
Aaron Jones	13.7	Start
DeeJay Dallas	7.3	Flex
Demond Claiborne	4.2	Flex
Max Bredeson	0.1	Avoid
Jaret Patterson	0.0	Avoid
Jerome Ford	0.0	Avoid
Jordan Mason	0.0	Out
WR
Justin Jefferson	19.2	Must start
Jordan Addison	11.9	Start
Tai Felton	5.4	Bench
Myles Price	0.8	Avoid
Dillon Bell	0.0	Avoid
Dontae Fleming	0.0	Avoid
Jauan Jennings	0.0	Out
Jeshaun Jones	0.0	Out
Michael Briscoe	0.0	Avoid
TE
T.J. Hockenson	11.0	Start
Josh Oliver	5.1	Bench
Ben Yurosek	0.0	Out
Cam Grandy	0.0	Avoid
Gavin Bartholomew	0.0	Avoid
Marshall Lang	0.0	Avoid
K
Will Reichard	6.2	Bench

Chicago Bears

Player	Sharp	Call
QB
Caleb Williams	0.0	Out
Case Keenum	0.0	Out
Miller Moss	0.0	Avoid
Tyson Bagent	0.0	Avoid
RB
D'Andre Swift	11.7	Start
Kyle Monangai	6.5	Flex
Roschon Johnson	0.3	Bench
Brittain Brown	0.0	Out
Salvon Ahmed	0.0	Avoid
Zavier Scott	0.0	Avoid
WR
Luther Burden	12.4	Start
Rome Odunze	10.5	Start
Kalif Raymond	6.2	Bench
Jahdae Walker	1.8	Bench
Zavion Thomas	0.8	Avoid
JP Richardson	0.0	Avoid
Kaden Davis	0.0	Avoid
Qadir Ismail	0.0	Avoid
Shaq Roland	0.0	Avoid
Thomas Ives	0.0	Avoid
TE
Colston Loveland	14.0	Must start
Cole Kmet	4.7	Bench
Sam Roush	2.0	Avoid
Franko House	0.0	Avoid
Hayden Large	0.0	Out
Nikola Kalinic	0.0	Out
Stephen Carlson	0.0	Avoid
K
Cairo Santos	6.3	Bench

Player props

This game on the props board

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.

Takes

All the news

Sep 25RotoWire NFL
Aaron Jones: Will play SundayStart
Kevin O'Connell said Friday that Aaron Jones (knee) will be available for Sunday's game at Tampa Bay, per Alec Lewis of The Athletic via RotoWire.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Dre'Mont Jones out, Craig Woodson and Eli Raridon questionable for Week 3Hold
ProFootballTalk reports the Patriots will be without Dre'Mont Jones in Week 3, with safety Craig Woodson and tight end Eli Raridon listed as questionable. New England travels to Jacksonville as 3.0-point underdogs in a 45.5-point total.
Sep 25ProFootballTalk
Kyler Murray: I've never had an issue protecting myself, concussion was an awkward playBench
Kyler Murray has been cleared and will start for the Vikings against the Buccaneers, per ProFootballTalk, and says the Week 1 concussion was an awkward play rather than a habit of exposing himself.
Sep 25The Athletic NFL
Eagles' Saquon Barkley says he will play on MNF vs. Bears after last week's stingerStart
The Athletic reports Saquon Barkley says he will play Monday night at Chicago after suffering a stinger last week. He remains listed as questionable.
Sep 25Sports Betting Dime
NFL Week 3 Injury Report: Latest Odds Shifts on Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Puka Nacua - Sports Betting DimeHold
Sports Betting Dime's Week 3 injury odds roundup flags Caleb Williams and Puka Nacua as doubtful and Jayden Daniels as out.
Sep 25heavy.com
Bears Announce Caleb Williams, 8 More Injury Updates Before Eagles Game - heavy.comBench
Heavy.com reports the Bears released injury updates on Caleb Williams and eight other players ahead of their game against the Eagles. Williams carries a doubtful designation.