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Sharp Six

CLE at TB

Week 2 · Final

Away

CLE

Cleveland Browns

23

Home

TB

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

19

The line it closed on

Spread

TB −8.5

Total 41.5

Implied points

CLE
16.5
TB
25.0

Half the total, plus half the points each side gives.

Weather

Wind 3 mph, 5% chance of rain, 86°F at kickoff: under the start/sit thresholds, so the calls below carry no weather adjustment.

No pull of the books holds this game yet.

The median spread across the books at each pull we hold, on TB. The first pull is where our history starts, not the book’s own opener.

The Sharp Model’s side

A lean: the side the numbers point to, under three stars and counted nowhere

CLE at TB

Sun, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET★★☆☆☆

CLE +8.5

Right · +12.5

Market TB −8.5 over CLE. The market’s own numbers had too few lines to price this game. Results add 1.4 toward CLE. Our number CLE +7.1, an edge of +1.4 before the signals. Backtest: run after the game, against the closing line.

  • Ratings · CLE +1.4· right
  • Public · CLE +1.0· right
  • Too few lines on the season for the market's own numbers to weigh in, so the line stands as the number; results add 1.4 toward CLE.
  • 89% of the spread money is on TB. That is a point to CLE.

Final: CLE 23 at TB 19

Line history

Backtest pick: priced off the closing line.

A backtest was made after the game against the closing line, so there is no pull to draw and no close to beat.

Start/sit, week 2

Cleveland Browns

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Deshaun Watson15.3Bench

Dillon Gabriel0.0Out

Shedeur Sanders0.0Avoid

Taylen Green0.0Out

RB
Quinshon Judkins11.5Start

Raheim Sanders4.8Flex

Jaleel McLaughlin1.7Bench

Benny LeMay0.0Avoid

Dylan Sampson0.0Out

Eric Gray0.0Avoid

WR
KC Concepcion8.6Start

Denzel Boston7.8Flex

Jerry Jeudy6.6Flex

Isaiah Bond1.7Bench

Tylan Wallace0.5Avoid

Malachi Corley0.2Avoid

Bub Means0.0Avoid

Jimmy Horn0.0Avoid

TE
Harold Fannin11.5Start

Blake Whiteheart2.0Avoid

Carsen Ryan0.3Avoid

Joe Royer0.0Out

Messiah Swinson0.0Avoid

K
Andre Szmyt4.4Avoid

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PlayerSharpCallWhy
QB
Baker Mayfield21.2Start

Easton Stick0.0Avoid

Garrett Greene0.0Avoid

Jalon Daniels0.0Avoid

RB
Bucky Irving13.9Start

Kenny Gainwell8.0Flex

Sean Tucker1.8Bench

Josh Williams0.0Avoid

WR
Emeka Egbuka11.7Start

Chris Godwin11.2Start

Jalen McMillan6.0Bench

Ted Hurst4.2Bench

Tez Johnson1.8Bench

Kameron Johnson0.5Avoid

David Sills0.0Out

Dean Patterson0.0Avoid

Eric Rivers0.0Avoid

TE
Cade Otton8.4Flex

Payne Durham0.6Avoid

Bauer Sharp0.1Avoid

CJ Dippre0.0Avoid

Darren Fells0.0Avoid

Devin Culp0.0Avoid

Ko Kieft0.0Avoid

K
Chase McLaughlin6.5Flex

No prop lines for this game yet. The Thursday game is pulled on Thursday at 20:10 UTC and every other game on Saturday at 22:10 UTC, with an extra Saturday pull at 16:00 UTC for the Saturday games of weeks 15 to 18, and a pull skips itself when the month’s request budget is low.