Week 3 · 1 game · 64 lines · 4 prop picks · 51 leans
Updated 3 h agoOne question per line: where the Sharp Model’s number sits against the book’s. Every line carries the best price on each side across the books at the newest pull, the Sharp Model’s projection for the stat, and the side it leans to with a star count. Three stars and up are prop picks, frozen when they publish and graded in public; anything less is a lean, shown and counted nowhere.
Rushing yards
Under 38.5
Best price at publish −112 at BetRivers. The Sharp Model projects 21.6 rushing yards. It gives the under 60%; the market, with the vig out, 50%. An edge of 10.2 percentage points.
From the Sharp Model, off the numbers on this card and nothing else.
Rushing yards
Over 23.5
Best price at publish −109 at DraftKings. The Sharp Model projects 46.2 rushing yards. It gives the over 60%; the market, with the vig out, 50%. An edge of 9.4 percentage points.
From the Sharp Model, off the numbers on this card and nothing else.
Receptions
Under 5.5
Best price at publish −108 at BetOnline. The Sharp Model projects 4.7 receptions. It gives the under 56%; the market, with the vig out, 50%. An edge of 6.8 percentage points.
From the Sharp Model, off the numbers on this card and nothing else.
Receptions
Under 4.5
Best price at publish +120 at BetOnline. The Sharp Model projects 3.9 receptions. It gives the under 51%; the market, with the vig out, 44%. An edge of 6.7 percentage points.
From the Sharp Model, off the numbers on this card and nothing else.
A table per market, one row per player. The line is the median across books; a published lean shows the line it was frozen with. The best number on each side wins before the price does, so a cell that leads with a different line is a book hanging a better number than the rest. A row with no lean is a line the Sharp Model had nothing to set against. “Every book” under a name opens each book’s line and price, and his games on record against today’s line, with the number of games always stated.
| Player | Line | Over | Under | Sharp proj. | Lean | Stars | Result | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and BetOnline 233.5 · Lowest: FanDuel 231.5 · Off the market: BetRivers 227.5, Bovada 263.5 His games against this line Cleared 232.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 232.5 | 227.5 −114BetRivers | 263.5 −230Bovada | 232.0 | Under 232.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetMGM 205.5 · Lowest: BetRivers 203.5 · Off the market: DraftKings 206.5, Bovada 240.5 His games against this line No games on record yet to hold against the line. | 204.5 | 203.5 −114BetRivers | 240.5 −240Bovada | 200.8 | Under 204.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – |
| Player | Line | Over | Under | Sharp proj. | Lean | Stars | Result | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings 39.5 · Lowest: FanDuel and BetMGM 37.5 · Off the market: Bovada 49.5 His games against this line Cleared 38.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 38.5 | 37.5 −113FanDuel | 49.5 −200Bovada | 21.6 | Under 38.5 | ★★★★☆ | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: FanDuel and BetMGM and BetRivers 24.5 · Lowest: DraftKings and BetOnline and Bovada 23.5 His games against this line Cleared 23.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 23.5 | −109DraftKings | 24.5 −111BetMGM | 46.2 | Over 23.5 | ★★★★☆ | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and FanDuel and BetRivers and BetOnline 24.5 · Lowest: BetMGM 23.5 His games against this line Cleared 24.5 in 2 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 24.5 | 23.5 −115BetMGM | −112DraftKings | 21.5 | Under 24.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 14.5 His games against this line Cleared 14.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 14.5 | −110DraftKings | −113FanDuel | 29.4 | Over 14.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetOnline 79.5 · Lowest: FanDuel 77.5 · Off the market: Bovada 98.5 His games against this line Cleared 78.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 78.5 | 77.5 −113FanDuel | 98.5 −260Bovada | 86.0 | Over 78.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and BetRivers and Bovada 8.5 · Lowest: FanDuel and BetMGM and BetOnline 7.5 His games against this line Cleared 7.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 7.5 | −113FanDuel | 8.5 −115DraftKings | 15.0 | Over 7.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: FanDuel 5.5 · Lowest: DraftKings and BetRivers and BetOnline and Bovada 4.5 His games against this line No games on record yet to hold against the line. | 4.5 | −114BetOnline | 5.5 −125FanDuel | 8.7 | Under 4.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – |
| Player | Line | Over | Under | Sharp proj. | Lean | Stars | Result | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and BetMGM and BetRivers and BetOnline 38.5 · Lowest: FanDuel 37.5 · Off the market: Bovada 48.5 His games against this line Cleared 38.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 38.5 | 37.5 −113FanDuel | 48.5 −215Bovada | 32.6 | Under 38.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every other book at 71.5 · Off the market: BetRivers 67.5, BetMGM 68.5, BetOnline 73.5, Bovada 81.5 His games against this line Cleared 71.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 71.5 | 67.5 −117BetRivers | 81.5 −170Bovada | 69.5 | Under 71.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetRivers 66.5 · Lowest: FanDuel and BetMGM 65.5 · Off the market: DraftKings 68.5, BetOnline 69.5, Bovada 78.5 His games against this line Cleared 66.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 66.5 | 65.5 −113FanDuel | 78.5 −170Bovada | 62.0 | Under 66.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetOnline 56.5 · Lowest: FanDuel 54.5 · Off the market: BetMGM 52.5, Bovada 65.5 His games against this line Cleared 55.5 in 2 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 55.5 | 52.5 −135BetMGM | 65.5 −165Bovada | 52.5 | Under 55.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetRivers 7.5 · Lowest: DraftKings and FanDuel and BetMGM and BetOnline and Bovada 6.5 His games against this line Cleared 6.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 6.5 | −106FanDuel | 7.5 −122BetRivers | 9.5 | Under 6.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: BetMGM 18.5 · Lowest: BetRivers and BetOnline 16.5 His games against this line Cleared 17.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 17.5 | 16.5 −114BetOnline | 18.5 −120BetMGM | 17.5 | Under 17.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and Bovada 9.5 · Lowest: FanDuel and BetMGM and BetRivers and BetOnline 8.5 His games against this line Cleared 8.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 8.5 | −109BetRivers | 9.5 −115DraftKings | 12.5 | Under 8.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and FanDuel and BetRivers 36.5 · Lowest: BetMGM 35.5 · Off the market: BetOnline 38.5, Bovada 46.5 His games against this line Cleared 36.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 36.5 | 35.5 −125BetMGM | 46.5 −180Bovada | 40.3 | Under 36.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and FanDuel and BetMGM and BetRivers and Bovada 5.5 · Lowest: BetOnline 4.5 His games against this line Cleared 5.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 5.5 | 4.5 −108BetOnline | −111BetMGM | 12.1 | Over 5.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: FanDuel 10.5 · Lowest: BetRivers 8.5 His games against this line Cleared 9.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 9.5 | 8.5 −118BetRivers | 10.5 −113FanDuel | 13.6 | Under 9.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every other book at 10.5 · Off the market: FanDuel 12.5 His games against this line Cleared 10.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 10.5 | −115DraftKings | 12.5 −113FanDuel | 20.1 | Over 10.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: FanDuel and BetRivers 46.5 · Lowest: DraftKings 45.5 · Off the market: BetMGM 44.5, BetOnline 48.5, Bovada 55.5 His games against this line Cleared 46.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 46.5 | 44.5 −145BetMGM | 55.5 −170Bovada | 48.8 | Under 46.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
One book: FanDuel 7.5 | – | 7.5 +108FanDuel | 7.5 −138FanDuel | – | – | – | – |
| Player | Line | Over | Under | Sharp proj. | Lean | Stars | Result | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: DraftKings and Bovada 5.5 · Lowest: FanDuel and BetMGM and BetRivers and BetOnline 4.5 His games against this line Cleared 4.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 4.5 | −137BetRivers | 5.5 −152DraftKings | 3.9 | Under 4.5 | ★★★☆☆ | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 5.5 His games against this line Cleared 5.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 5.5 | +106FanDuel | −108BetOnline | 4.7 | Under 5.5 | ★★★☆☆ | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 4.5 His games against this line Cleared 4.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 4.5 | −120BetMGM | +112DraftKings | 4.2 | Under 4.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Highest: FanDuel and BetMGM and BetRivers and BetOnline 1.5 · Lowest: DraftKings and Bovada 0.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | 0.5 −239DraftKings | −217BetOnline | 1.7 | Over 1.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 4.5 His games against this line Cleared 4.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 4.5 | +102FanDuel | −124DraftKings | 4.0 | Under 4.5 | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 0.5 His games against this line Cleared 0.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 0.5 | −113DraftKings | −106FanDuel | 0.9 | Over 0.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 1.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | +141BetOnline | −164DraftKings | 1.5 | Over 1.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 1.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | −126DraftKings | +105BetMGM | 1.4 | Under 1.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 1.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | +154FanDuel | −185BetMGM | 1.4 | Over 1.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 3.5 His games against this line Cleared 3.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 3.5 | −110BetMGM | +100Bovada | 3.5 | Under 3.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 1.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | +140DraftKings | −169BetOnline | 1.2 | Under 1.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 1.5 His games against this line Cleared 1.5 in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 1.5 | +124DraftKings | −149BetOnline | 1.6 | Over 1.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Every book at 3.5 His games against this line Cleared 3.5 in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | 3.5 | −154FanDuel | +130DraftKings | 3.8 | Under 3.5 | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – |
| Player | Line | Yes | No | Sharp proj. | Lean | Stars | Result | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +135 at BetMGM to +150 at FanDuel His games Scored in 2 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +150FanDuel | no price | 0.76 | Yes | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +185 at BetMGM to +220 at DraftKings and Bovada His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +220DraftKings | no price | 0.20 | No (no price posted) | ★★☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +1300 at BetOnline to +1550 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +1550BetMGM | no price | 0.08 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from −167 at BetOnline to −135 at DraftKings His games Scored in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | −135DraftKings | no price | 0.70 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +900 at BetOnline to +1150 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +1150BetMGM | no price | 0.02 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +350 at BetMGM and BetOnline to +425 at DraftKings His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +425DraftKings | no price | 0.18 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +2000 at BetMGM to +2500 at DraftKings and FanDuel and Bovada His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +2500DraftKings | no price | 0.02 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +240 at BetOnline to +340 at DraftKings and Bovada His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +340DraftKings | no price | 0.26 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +180 at BetOnline to +200 at FanDuel His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +200FanDuel | no price | 0.43 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +550 at BetRivers to +750 at DraftKings His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +750DraftKings | no price | 0.14 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +550 at BetRivers to +650 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +650BetMGM | no price | 0.10 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +550 at BetOnline to +700 at DraftKings and Bovada His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +700DraftKings | no price | 0.09 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +1100 at BetOnline to +1800 at FanDuel His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +1800FanDuel | no price | 0.02 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +325 at BetMGM to +400 at FanDuel His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +400FanDuel | no price | 0.32 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +180 at BetOnline to +225 at DraftKings and BetMGM and Bovada His games Scored in 1 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +225DraftKings | no price | 0.45 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +175 at BetMGM to +200 at FanDuel and BetRivers His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +200FanDuel | no price | 0.31 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +650 at BetRivers to +1150 at BetMGM His games No games on record yet to hold against the line. | – | +1150BetMGM | no price | 0.12 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +700 at BetRivers to +850 at DraftKings and BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +850DraftKings | no price | 0.11 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +400 at BetOnline to +575 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +575BetMGM | no price | 0.14 | No (no price posted) | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +170 at BetOnline to +210 at FanDuel and BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +210FanDuel | no price | 0.46 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +1300 at DraftKings and FanDuel and BetOnline and Bovada to +1600 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +1600BetMGM | no price | 0.09 | Yes | ★☆☆☆☆lean | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
Atlanta Falcons D/ST ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +525 at Bovada to +650 at BetMGM | – | +650BetMGM | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
Atlanta Falcons Defense ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
One book: FanDuel Yes +700 | – | +700FanDuel | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +2000 at BetRivers to +3300 at BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +3300BetMGM | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
Green Bay Packers D/ST ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +450 at BetMGM to +550 at DraftKings | – | +550DraftKings | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
Green Bay Packers Defense ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
One book: FanDuel Yes +850 | – | +850FanDuel | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +1300 at BetRivers to +2000 at FanDuel and BetMGM His games Scored in 0 of 1 game, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +2000FanDuel | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
GB vs ATL Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +1100 at FanDuel to +1600 at BetRivers His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +1600BetRivers | no price | – | – | – | – | |||||||||||||||||||||
ATL at GB Every bookThe books’ lines
Yes from +2500 at BetRivers to +6000 at DraftKings and FanDuel and Bovada His games Scored in 0 of 2 games, a small sample.
2026 season, games he played. | – | +6000DraftKings | no price | – | – | – | – |
0–0–0
nothing decided yet
The prop picks, three stars and up, each graded against the line it was frozen with. Pushes are counted and left out of the percentage. 0 void, where the player did not play, counted nowhere. Leans are on the board and in no number here.
Nothing has graded yet. The record starts with the first graded week, and no backtest stands in for it.
Five markets: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions and anytime touchdown. The Sharp Model’s projection for each stat is the weekly projection the rest of the site runs on, set against every line the books post for that player.
The line is the consensus, taken from the books that post both sides at the same number at the newest pull: the median of their lines, and the lower of the middle two when there is an even count, so it is always a line some book actually hung and one outlier book cannot move it. The market is then the books whose line sits within 1.0 of that consensus, since a book further off is quoting a different line altogether, and it needs at least 2 of them or there is no consensus at all. The market’s probability for each side takes the median over price and the median under price across those books and removes the vig from the pair in proportion. Anytime touchdown is priced on Yes only, so there is no pair to take the vig out of; its probability is the median Yes price’s own divided by 1.07, a 7% allowance that is stated here rather than measured.
The starting point is the market’s own number, not ours, because the books price a player’s week sharper than any weekly projection does. For yardage and receptions, the consensus line and the de-vigged prices together imply an average for the stat, read off a normal curve with a fixed spread: 60 yards for passing, 24 for rushing, 24 for receiving and 1.8 receptions. A prop line sits nearer the typical game than the average one, and rushing, receiving and receptions run right-skewed, a few big games pulling the average above the typical one, so the curve’s centre sits below the average by 0.15 of the spread for rushing yards, 0.2 for receiving yards, 0.1 for receptions, and not at all for passing yards.
The Sharp Model’s projection then moves the market’s number three-tenths of the way toward itself (a weight of 0.3) and no further: enough to say where we disagree, never enough to overrule a market that knows more than a projection does. On anytime touchdown the starting point is the market’s Yes probability, and it moves the same share of the way toward the Sharp Model’s own chance of a touchdown, which takes projected rushing plus receiving touchdowns as a rate and the chance of at least one as one minus e to the minus that rate. The Sharp proj. column and the figure on each card are the projection itself, before it is weighed against the market.
The lean is where that lands against the price: the side the moved number favours, and the edge is the gap between its probability and the market’s, in percentage points. Stars are bands on the edge: under 3 points is one star, under 6 is two, under 9 is three, under 12 is four, and anything more is five. 3 stars and up are prop picks and get a card. One and two stars are leans, not picks: shown in the tables, counted nowhere. On anytime touchdown a lean on No has no price to take, so it reads “No (no price posted)” and is never a pick.
Guards. No lean for a player with no projection, or a projection of zero, for the stat; none where fewer than 2 books post both sides at the same number, or, on anytime touchdown, fewer than 2 books post Yes. A player listed Out, IR or Doubtful when the leans publish gets no lean at all, not merely no pick: his prices stay on the board with nothing set against them. A name the books spell in a way we cannot match stays on the board with no lean rather than being guessed at, and two books spelling one player two ways are one line.
Two pulls a week, three in the weeks with Saturday games, because every game costs 5 requests, one per market, out of a free plan of 500 a month shared with the game lines. Thursday at 20:10 UTC pulls the Thursday game; Saturday at 22:10 UTC pulls every game still to kick off, Sunday and Monday; and in weeks 15 to 18, Saturday at 16:00 UTC pulls the Saturday games that kick off before the evening pull. A pull that would leave fewer than 40 requests for the month is skipped whole, and no game is pulled after it kicks off.
A lean is frozen the first time a pull sees it before kickoff: the side, the line, the best price and its book, the projection, the two probabilities and the stars never change after that. A later pull adds prices to the board and nothing else. When the week’s stats land, each row is graded against its frozen line on its frozen side: right, wrong, or a push on the number. A player who did not play is void and counted nowhere.
There is no backtest. Historical prop prices are a paid product and we do not hold them, so the record starts with the first graded week and nothing is filled in behind it. The constants above are stated so they can be argued with, and they stay where they are until there are graded weeks to fit them on. This page is a record of a system, kept in public. It is not a recommendation to do anything with it.
