Dynasty rankings

The market is Sleeper’s dynasty ADP: the 1QB PPR board, or the 2QB board with superflex on. A price becomes a value on one curve, 100 for the first pick and falling by a factor of e every 36 picks, so the top of a startup is steep and the tail is flat, the way every dynasty trade chart reads.

The Sharp Model’s number is 4 seasons of his points per game in your scoring (the same pace as the rest-of-season board: the season projection, pulled toward his last three games once he has played two), each season aged a year and worth 85% of the one before. The age curve is flat at its peak: running backs 24–26, receivers 25–28, tight ends 26–29, quarterbacks 27–33. Before it a player climbs from 0.85 at 21; after it he loses 12% of his peak a year at running back, 8% at receiver and tight end and 5% at quarterback, never below 0.3. Age is measured to September 1.

A player is ranked when he is on an NFL team and inside the market’s top 300; past that the curve is so flat that our share of the blend would set his place on its own. Those players are ranked by our number above the replacement starter at their position in a 12-team league, because a quarterback’s points and a receiver’s are not worth the same, then read off the same curve at their rank; the Sharp value is the market’s moved 30% of the way to ours. The market leads because nothing here has earned more: there is no backtest for dynasty values, and four years of projection on its own would rank a rookie with one good month over a proven star. The scoring chips change our number only; Sleeper’s market is its own.

The rookie view ranks first-year players among themselves: by Sleeper’s rookie ADP when it has one, and otherwise by their order on the dynasty board, on the same curve from 100.